Gay

STOP THE COUNTING DESK. STOP THE CAMERAS. ACTUALLY, KEEP THE CAMERAS ROLLING.

LEXINGTON CITY — OH. MY. ABSOLUTE. GOODNESS.

LADIES.

GENTLEMEN.

EVERYONE.

I have news.

I have so much news that I genuinely do not know which screen to point at first.

We have crossed midnight.

We have counted more than TWENTY-FOUR BILLION national House party-list ballots.

We have declared more than sixteen hundred House constituencies.

We have one hundred state Senate results.

And—

THE PRIME MINISTER OF TOSLER HAS LOST HER OWN CONSTITUENCY.

YES.

YOU HEARD ME.

GIADA RICHI HAS BEEN DEFEATED IN FLORENZIA.

Not because she failed to win the most first preferences.

SHE DID WIN THE MOST FIRST PREFERENCES.

But because, after the ranked-choice transfers were completed, her Social Democratic challenger, Alessia Rinaldi, 42, a former Florenzia city councillor and labour lawyer, came from behind.

And the margin?

236,803 VOTES.

Out of more than fifteen million valid constituency votes.

I have consumed enough espresso tonight to power a small municipality.

Someone has offered me a glass of Florenzian red wine.

And I swear, if we get one more ranked-choice reversal like this, somebody is going to suggest I step outside for a joint.

Not yet, darling.

WE HAVE A PRIME MINISTER’S SEAT TO ANALYZE.

BREAKING: RICHI DEFEATED IN FLORENZIA

Let’s put the constituency on the screen.

FLORENZIA — S081-D31

PRIME MINISTER GIADA RICHI (PLD) — DEFEATED IN CONSTITUENCY

WINNER: ALESSIA RINALDI (PSD)

FINAL FIRST-PREFERENCE COUNT

Giada Richi — Liberal Democrats: 30.61%

Alessia Rinaldi — Social Democrats: 16.04%

Other candidates: 53.35%

FINAL ROUND — AFTER RANKED-CHOICE TRANSFERS

Alessia Rinaldi — Social Democrats: 7,735,821 — 50.78%

Giada Richi — Liberal Democrats: 7,499,018 — 49.22%

SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC MAJORITY: 236,803 VOTES

TNN RACE CALL: SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC GAIN

NOW.

I need you to understand what just happened.

Because this is not an ordinary election defeat.

Giada Richi entered the count with a significant lead in first preferences.

More than thirty percent of voters put the Liberal Democratic Prime Minister first.

Her Social Democratic opponent, Rinaldi, received approximately sixteen percent.

FOURTEEN AND A HALF POINTS BEHIND.

And as the initial batches of ballots were processed, Richi’s position appeared comparatively strong.

Our modeled interim first-preference tracker, at approximately 81.6 percent of ballots reported, still placed Richi on roughly 31.1 percent, with Rinaldi at about 15.6 percent.

But that was the FIRST-PREFERENCE count.

It was not the final ranked-choice result.

And THAT is the distinction that matters.

Because when the lower-ranked candidates were eliminated and subsequent preferences redistributed—THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE OVERTOOK THE PRIME MINISTER.

More than seven million votes for each finalist.

A margin of less than a quarter of a million.

And the sitting Prime Minister loses her local constituency.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THIS IS RANKED-CHOICE VOTING IN ACTION.

You can lead on first preferences.

You can have the largest initial bloc of support.

But if enough voters whose preferred candidates are eliminated rank your opponent ahead of you—

YOU CAN LOSE.

And tonight, in Florenzia, Giada Richi has done exactly that.

DOES THIS MEAN RICHI IS OUT OF PARLIAMENT? NOT SO FAST.

Now listen. And I need everybody listening very carefully.

GIADA RICHI HAS LOST HER CONSTITUENCY.

That is settled.

But is she necessarily excluded from the next House of Representatives?

NO.

The Liberal Democrats are contesting the national House party-list election.

Richi may have an alternative route to Parliament through the compensatory allocation and the party’s candidate list.

But that allocation has not yet occurred.

We do not know the party’s final national share.

We do not know the final constituency totals.

And we do not yet have the completed distribution of compensatory seats.

So please do not announce that the Prime Minister has permanently lost her parliamentary seat.

WE ARE NOT AT THAT STAGE.

What we can say is that the leader of the governing parliamentary party has suffered a constituency defeat. A defeat of considerable political significance.

And it comes during a national election in which her party is already confronting a very difficult constituency scoreboard.

The Prime Minister’s political future now has two separate questions attached to it: can she secure membership in the next Parliament through another electoral route? And can she command the confidence of that Parliament if she does?

Those are different questions. And neither can be answered simply by looking at her constituency defeat.

But politically?

THIS IS A MAJOR DEFEAT FOR THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS.

There is simply no other way to describe it.

AND WHAT DOES PRESIDENT OSSOFF DO NOW?!

Now, I want to turn to the President.

Because there is an important constitutional distinction here.

Liam Ossoff remains President of Tosler.

He is not being elected tonight.

His presidential term continues until 2028.

And he will remain in office regardless of the parliamentary results.

But the Liberal Democratic parliamentary government is another matter.

Richi’s constituency defeat complicates her personal political position.

And her party’s current constituency results complicate the question of whether it can continue leading the government.

Remember what happened on Monday night.

Ossoff and Richi campaigned together in Florenzia.

The President returned to one of the cities that helped deliver his 2024 presidential victory over Amira Mohammadi.

Richi defended the Liberal Democratic government’s parliamentary record.

And across the city, Social Democratic leader Amanjeet Singh and former President Mohammadi were presenting an alternative political vision.

Now, just over twenty-four hours later—A SOCIAL DEMOCRAT HAS DEFEATED GIADA RICHI IN HER OWN FLORENZIA CONSTITUENCY.

I am not suggesting that Monday night’s rally caused this result. We cannot establish that from the count. But the political symbolism is unmistakable.

The city that helped make Ossoff President has now produced a constituency defeat for his Prime Minister.

And somewhere tonight, I imagine the staff responsible for updating the Palace’s parliamentary briefings have suddenly become very busy.

VERY. VERY. BUSY.

THE HOUSE: SIXTEEN HUNDRED SEATS DECLARED

Now, let us turn to the national constituency board.

Because Richi’s defeat is not the only major development.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES — DECLARED CONSTITUENCIES

1,614 of 2,000 district seats declared

Social Democrats (PSD): 499

Labour (PL): 420

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 210

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 132

Democratic Socialists (SD): 132

Civic Democrats (DCT): 108

Socialists (PS): 61

Greens (PV): 23

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 14

Independents: 8

Communists (PC): 7

Tosler First (TP): 0

HOUSE CONSTITUENCIES DECLARED: 1,614 / 2,000

CONSTITUENCIES OUTSTANDING: 386

COMPENSATORY SEATS ALLOCATED: 0 / 1,000

FOUR HUNDRED AND NINETY-NINE?! AMANJEET, EXCUSE ME?!

LOOK.

AT.

THAT.

SOCIAL DEMOCRATS: 499.

They are ONE constituency away from 500 declared district victories.

ONE.

Labour is at 420.

The Liberal Democrats are at 210.

And the Civic Democrats have climbed to 108.

Now compare those figures with our previous bulletin.

The Social Democrats had 343.

They have now gained 156 additional declarations.

Labour had 283.

They have gained 137.

The Liberal Democrats have risen from 157 to 210.

And the Civic Democrats have jumped from 42 to 108.

THAT IS SIXTY-SIX ADDITIONAL CIVIC DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCY VICTORIES SINCE OUR LAST UPDATE.

So yes, the new party’s seat count is growing.

But the Social Democrats remain far ahead in declared constituencies.

I want to emphasize once again that this is the declared-seat count, not a completed House result.

There are still 386 constituencies outstanding.

And no compensatory seats have been allocated.

But ladies and gentlemen—

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS HAVE NOW WON NEARLY FIVE HUNDRED DISTRICT SEATS.

That is a very substantial parliamentary presence.

And it is happening alongside a national party vote that remains extremely close among several parties.

I cannot emphasize enough how unusual that combination is.

TWENTY-FOUR BILLION VOTES: THE NATIONAL PARTY COUNT

Now let’s examine the national House party-list ballot.

24.089 BILLION VALID VOTES COUNTED.

Approximately eighty percent of the eventual valid national count.

HOUSE NATIONAL PARTY-LIST VOTE

80.00% counted

Civic Democrats (DCT): 18.08%

Social Democrats (PSD): 17.63%

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 17.30%

Labour (PL): 16.13%

Democratic Socialists (SD): 12.85%

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 9.34%

Greens (PV): 5.04%

Communists (PC): 1.31%

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 1.17%

Socialists (PS): 0.72%

Tosler First (TP): 0.43%

OH.

LOOK.

AT.

THAT.

The Civic Democrats STILL lead the national House party-list vote.

Eighty percent counted.

And Jessica Powers’ party remains at 18.08%.

The Social Democrats are at 17.63%.

Just 0.45 percentage points behind.

The Liberal Democrats are at 17.30%.

Labour at 16.13%.

And Abigail Perez’s Democratic Socialists remain at 12.85%, substantially above their final pre-election polling figure.

But now compare the national list and the local seat board.

The Civic Democrats lead the national party vote with 18.08%.

Yet they have 108 declared constituencies.

The Social Democrats have 17.63% nationally.

And 499 declared constituencies.

FOUR HUNDRED AND NINETY-NINE.</b]

Ladies and gentlemen, the two components of Tosler’s House election are producing very different distributions of political support.

And those differences are going to be central to the final compensatory allocation.

But we are not allocating those seats yet.

[b]EIGHTY PERCENT IS NOT ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

The remaining votes still matter.

The remaining constituencies still matter.

And so do the qualification rules.

THE GREENS. TWENTY-THREE. STILL TWENTY-THREE.

I am going to need someone from the Green Party to explain this to me.

Not because anything improper has occurred.

But because this party has now turned the number twenty-three into a national television event.

TWENTY-THREE CONSTITUENCY VICTORIES.

At our last bulletin?

Twenty-three.

Now?

STILL TWENTY-THREE.

And their national House party-list vote remains at 5.04%.

The alternative qualification threshold is 25 constituency seats.

They are two short.

TWO.

Now, to be clear, they remain just above the five-percent national threshold in the reported vote.

But that count is not complete.

So we do not yet have a final national qualification result.

Meanwhile, the Socialists have won 61 constituencies.

They have already cleared the 25-seat alternative.

Despite holding just 0.72% of reported national House party-list votes.

That distinction remains one of the most fascinating features of the entire election.

THE GREENS ARE FIGHTING TO CONFIRM ELIGIBILITY.

THE SOCIALISTS HAVE ALREADY SECURED IT THROUGH THEIR LOCAL VICTORIES.

And with 386 constituencies still outstanding, we will continue watching.

ONE HUNDRED SENATE SEATS. ONE HUNDRED!

Now.

I need the Senate board.

Because the upper chamber has just undergone an extraordinary acceleration in declarations.

At our last bulletin, we had six state-senator seats called.

SIX.

We now have—

ONE HUNDRED.

ONE HUNDRED CLASS A STATE-SENATOR CONTESTS DECLARED.

And the party distribution is extremely interesting.

STATE SENATE CLASS A — DECLARED SEATS

100 of 150 state contests declared

Social Democrats (PSD): 40

Labour (PL): 35

Civic Democrats (DCT): 17

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 8

All other parties: 0

NOW.

LOOK.

AT.

THIS.

Amanjeet Singh’s Social Democrats have 40.

Labour has 35.

And the Civic Democrats have 17.

Seventeen!

Remember that in our previous bulletin, the Civic Democrats had not secured any of the first six state-senator declarations.

Now they have seventeen.

But the Liberal Democrats?

EIGHT.

Eight of the first 100 state-senator seats declared.

Now that is a difficult number for a party with the Liberal Democrats’ historic national standing.

But I must emphasize that the order of state declarations is not necessarily representative of the final Senate.

We still have 50 state-senator contests outstanding.

And we have not allocated the 200 proportional Senate seats.

Nor should we forget the 150 continuing state senators who were not on today’s ballot.

So please do not confuse eight newly declared state-senator seats with the Liberal Democrats’ eventual full Senate representation.

Those are different things.

But it is an important early result.

And combined with the Prime Minister’s constituency defeat, it will certainly raise questions about the party’s parliamentary position.

THE SENATE LISTS: THREE PARTIES, VERY LITTLE ROOM

Now let’s examine the two proportional Senate ballots.

SENATE CLASS A PROPORTIONAL PARTY LIST

80.00% counted

Civic Democrats: 18.51%

Social Democrats: 17.83%

Liberal Democrats: 17.13%

Labour: 16.08%

Democratic Socialists: 12.68%

Conservative Republicans: 9.21%

Greens: 4.98%

SENATE CLASS B PROPORTIONAL PARTY LIST

80.05% counted

Civic Democrats: 17.90%

Liberal Democrats: 17.58%

Social Democrats: 17.57%

Labour: 16.37%

Democratic Socialists: 12.72%

Conservative Republicans: 9.21%

Greens: 5.04%

NOW.

CLASS B.

Liberal Democrats: 17.58%.

Social Democrats: 17.57%.

ONE-HUNDREDTH OF A PERCENTAGE POINT.

I have had entirely too much coffee to deal with this.

But we must deal with it.

Because these are two separate proportional Senate elections, with separate allocations.

And neither result can be substituted for the House national party vote.

The Senate count is developing its own political story.

One that may become extremely important when the newly elected National Assembly meets.

THE REGIONAL MAP: FLORENZIA, ROMIA, MILANEZE AND BOLOGNIATI

Before we move on, let me show you where some of these declared House seats are coming from.

FLORENZIA — 31 OF 40 DISTRICTS DECLARED

Labour: 13

Social Democrats: 10

Liberal Democrats: 5

Civic Democrats: 2

Democratic Socialists: 1

That includes Giada Richi’s constituency defeat.

And remember, we have nine Florenzia constituencies still outstanding.

Now look at Romia.

ROMIA — 50 OF 55 DISTRICTS DECLARED

Social Democrats: 29

Liberal Democrats: 9

Democratic Socialists: 5

Marxist-Leninists: 4

Labour: 3

The Social Democrats are dominating the declared constituencies of Tosler’s second-largest city.

Amanjeet Singh himself has already been returned there.

Now move to Milaneze, the country’s largest city.

MILANEZE — 51 OF 60 DISTRICTS DECLARED

Social Democrats: 22

Traditional Socialists: 14

Labour: 8

Civic Democrats: 4

Democratic Socialists: 3

And finally, Bologniati.

BOLOGNIATI — 42 OF 45 DISTRICTS DECLARED

Labour: 23

Democratic Socialists: 6

Social Democrats: 6

Civic Democrats: 4

Traditional Socialists: 3

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, THIS IS NOT ONE NATIONAL SWING.

It is a collection of deeply varied regional political contests.

And the national party-list vote is only one part of that story.

JOHN REYNOLDS IS RETURNING TO PARLIAMENT

Now I want to turn briefly to Labour.

Because we have another notable constituency result.

JOHN REYNOLDS — ELECTED.

The former Labour leader and current Secretary of Labour in President Ossoff’s administration has secured his House constituency in Bologniati.

He received approximately 40.11% of first preferences.

And he has been returned following the ranked-choice count.

This is politically interesting for several reasons.

Reynolds led the party that emerged from the divisions within the Social Democratic movement.

He later resigned Labour’s leadership to accept the position of Secretary of Labour in Ossoff’s cabinet while remaining a Labour parliamentarian.

Now Labour is performing strongly in the declared constituency count.

And Reynolds himself has secured a seat.

But the broader political circumstances have changed dramatically.

The Liberal Democrats have suffered major constituency losses relative to the expectations associated with their historical standing.

The Social Democrats are leading the declared district count.

And the parliamentary relationships that supported the outgoing government may not be sufficient to sustain the same arrangement in the next Assembly.

Those questions are for the newly elected representatives to resolve.

But Reynolds will be among the returning parliamentarians who may have a role in those discussions.

THE LEADERSHIP BOARD — FOUR VERY DIFFERENT STORIES

Let’s bring up the four nationally prominent leaders we’ve followed all evening.

AMANJEET SINGH — ELECTED

Social Democrats | Romia

JESSICA POWERS — ELECTED

Civic Democrats | Silciano

ABIGAIL PEREZ — ELECTED

Democratic Socialists | Florenzia

GIADA RICHI — DEFEATED IN CONSTITUENCY

Liberal Democrats | Florenzia

POSSIBLE PARTY-LIST ROUTE — NOT YET DETERMINED

Now, I need everyone to recognize just how different these political stories are.

Singh has won his seat and leads the party with the most declared House constituencies.

Powers has won her seat and leads the party currently ahead in the national House party-list vote.

Perez has won her seat with an outright first-preference majority, while her Democratic Socialists continue to perform substantially above their final pre-election national polling.

And Richi—The sitting Prime Minister— Has lost her constituency after leading the initial first-preference count.

THAT IS AN EXTRAORDINARY SET OF CONTRASTS.

But we have not established the final parliamentary composition.

And we have not determined who will serve as prime minister after the new National Assembly convenes.

Those are questions for the completed election and the subsequent constitutional process.

JOHN QUEEN: “I NEED ANOTHER ESPRESSO. AND POSSIBLY A HOLIDAY.”

Ladies and gentlemen.

It is twelve thirty-seven in the morning.

I have been staring at election maps for hours.

My coffee cup has been refilled so many times that I no longer know whether I am drinking espresso or simply continuing a long-term relationship with caffeine.

Someone has placed a perfectly lovely glass of Florenzian wine near the production desk.

I have not touched it.

YET.

And the suggestion that I should smoke a joint and relax?

Darling, have you SEEN this constituency board?

THERE IS NOTHING RELAXING ABOUT IT.

We have twenty-four billion national House party-list votes counted.

We have 1,614 House constituencies declared.

We have 100 state-senator seats called.

The Social Democrats have 499 declared House districts.

Labour has 420.

The Liberal Democrats have 210.

The Civic Democrats have 108.

The Greens are sitting at 23 district victories, just two short of their alternative qualification threshold.

The Socialist Party has 61.

The Civic Democrats remain first in the national House party-list count.

And the sitting Prime Minister has lost her own constituency.

AND WE STILL HAVE THREE HUNDRED AND EIGHTY-SIX HOUSE DISTRICTS TO DECLARE.

Plus the proportional allocations.

Plus the remaining state Senate contests.

Plus the Senate proportional seats.

And then—Only then—Can we begin to examine the full parliamentary arithmetic that will determine the next government.

I know there are people watching tonight who want me to tell them who has won.

Who will govern.

Who will become prime minister.

And what this means for President Ossoff.

But here’s what I can tell you.

THE BALLOTS ARE CHANGING TOSLER’S PARLIAMENTARY LANDSCAPE.

That much is unmistakable.

What remains uncertain is exactly how that landscape will look when all the results are assembled.

And until that happens, we are not going to manufacture certainty where it does not exist.

Not on this network.

Not on this broadcast.

Not while I have another cup of coffee available.

Ladies and gentlemen—

GIADA RICHI HAS LOST HER CONSTITUENCY.

AMANJEET SINGH’S SOCIAL DEMOCRATS HAVE 499 DECLARED DISTRICT SEATS.

JESSICA POWERS’ CIVIC DEMOCRATS CONTINUE TO LEAD THE NATIONAL HOUSE PARTY VOTE.

AND ONE HUNDRED STATE SENATORS HAVE BEEN ELECTED.

It is going to be a very, very long night.

And I wouldn’t have it any other way.

THIS IS JOHN QUEEN.

THIS IS TNN.

AND WE ARE STILL COUNTING.

EXCUSE ME. EXCUSE ME. EXCUSE ME.

LEXINGTON CITY — PEOPLE. I HAVE NEWS.

I have SO MUCH NEWS.

I need another screen.

I need a larger map.

I need the Elections Commission to understand that there are only so many numbers one man can point at simultaneously.

Because it is not even midnight.

And we now have—

NINETEEN BILLION VOTES COUNTED.

ONE THOUSAND, ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-TWO HOUSE CONSTITUENCIES DECLARED.

OUR FIRST SIX STATE SENATORS ELECTED.

And a major party leader has just won her own constituency with an outright first-preference majority.

Oh, and the Greens?

THE GREENS.

They are now TWO constituency victories away from qualifying through the alternative district threshold.

Two.

And that's before we even discuss the fact that the party leading the national House vote is not remotely close to leading the declared constituency seats.

Ladies and gentlemen—

WE HAVE ENTERED THE PART OF ELECTION NIGHT WHERE THE MAP STARTS ANSWERING BACK.

FIRST, THE HOUSE. LOOK AT THIS ABSOLUTE MADNESS.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES — DECLARED CONSTITUENCIES

1,172 of 2,000 seats declared

Social Democrats (PSD): 343

Labour (PL): 283

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 157

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 127

Democratic Socialists (SD): 117

Socialists (PS): 54

Civic Democrats (DCT): 42

Greens (PV): 23

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 13

Independents: 8

Communists (PC): 5

Tosler First (TP): 0

TOTAL DECLARED: 1,172

DISTRICTS OUTSTANDING: 828

HOUSE COMPENSATORY SEATS ALLOCATED: 0 / 1,000

THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY-THREE. AMANJEET, WHAT HAVE YOU DONE?!

Look at that Social Democratic number.

343.

THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY-THREE.

At our last update, the Social Democrats had 124 declared constituencies.

They now have 343.

That's 219 additional constituency declarations for Amanjeet Singh's party since our previous bulletin.

And Labour?

Labour now has 283.

Which means the Social Democrats have opened a 60-seat lead over Labour in the declared constituency count.

Now, I know what you're thinking.

John, does this mean Amanjeet Singh has won the election?

NO.

ABSOLUTELY NOT.

Please don't make me say it again.

We still have 828 constituencies to declare.

We haven't allocated the 1,000 compensatory seats.

And we have a separate Senate election.

But there is a real political story emerging here.

The Social Democrats entered September facing questions about their national relevance.

Their former President, Amira Mohammadi, had been defeated by Liam Ossoff in 2024.

Labour had taken substantial support from their traditional electoral base.

And the Social Democrats were struggling to define their future.

Now their leader, Amanjeet Singh, has been elected in Romia.

And his party has won more declared constituencies than any other political organization.

By a substantial margin.

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC RECOVERY IS NOT MERELY A POLLING STORY ANYMORE.

It is producing elected representatives.

Hundreds of them.

But I want to emphasize one other point.

The order in which constituencies report can significantly affect the early scoreboard.

These are 343 victories from the 1,172 districts declared so far.

They are not a statistical sample of all 2,000 constituencies.

So we cannot simply multiply this number to announce a final House result.

Still.

THREE HUNDRED AND FORTY-THREE.

That is a very large number.

And it is now sitting right in the middle of our national television screen.

BREAKING: ABIGAIL PEREZ HAS BEEN ELECTED IN FLORENZIA

OH, WE HAVE A MAJOR LEADER CALL.

And this one is particularly interesting.

ABIGAIL PEREZ — ELECTED

PARTY: DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS (SD)

STATE: FLORENZIA

CONSTITUENCY: S081-D06

FIRST-PREFERENCE VOTE: 50.24%

FIFTY POINT TWO FOUR.

Ladies and gentlemen—

SHE WON A MAJORITY ON FIRST PREFERENCES.

She didn't need a dramatic sequence of transfers to overcome a first-round deficit.

She crossed the majority line on the first count.

And the Democratic Socialist leader is returning to the House of Representatives.

Now, consider the political significance of this result.

Perez has spent this campaign arguing that the Democratic Socialists deserve a larger place in Tosler's parliamentary politics.

Her party entered the final day of campaigning polling at 7.5% nationally.

Its exit poll registered 13.15%.

And tonight, its reported national House party-list vote remains well above the final pre-election polling figure.

But Perez's own victory tells us something more specific.

In her constituency in Florenzia, she has secured an outright majority of first-preference voters.

That is not simply a national list result.

That is a personal constituency mandate.

And remember where she won.

FLORENZIA.

The city that helped Liam Ossoff win the presidency in 2024.

The city where Ossoff and Prime Minister Giada Richi held their final Liberal Democratic rally.

The city where Amanjeet Singh and former President Mohammadi held their concluding Social Democratic rally.

And now the city where Abigail Perez has secured her own House seat.

Do you see why I have been telling you to watch Florenzia?

EVERYBODY CAME TO FLORENZIA TO MAKE A STATEMENT.

ABIGAIL PEREZ JUST LEFT WITH A SEAT.

Now, of course, Perez's result does not mean the Democratic Socialists have won Florenzia.

They haven't.

In fact, the constituency picture across the state is considerably more complicated.

Which brings me to our next graphic.

FLORENZIA: THE CITY THAT APPARENTLY REFUSES TO BE BORING

Look at the declared constituency results from Florenzia.

FLORENZIA — 19 HOUSE CONSTITUENCIES DECLARED

Labour: 11

Social Democrats: 4

Liberal Democrats: 3

Democratic Socialists: 1

Civic Democrats: 0

Nineteen declarations.

Eleven Labour victories.

THREE Liberal Democratic victories.

One Democratic Socialist victory.

And no declared Civic Democrat constituency victories in this batch.

Now compare that with the national House party-list ballot in Florenzia, where Jessica Powers' Civic Democrats continue to lead the votes reported so far.

And remember that Prime Minister Giada Richi herself has not yet been declared elected or defeated in her constituency.

THAT'S RIGHT. THE PRIME MINISTER IS STILL WAITING.

Now, I want to be careful here.

Most of Florenzia's constituencies have not necessarily completed their counts.

Richi's district remains undeclared.

And the pattern among the first 19 districts cannot establish the final result across the state.

But this is exactly why I keep telling everyone that national list votes and local constituency outcomes are different things.

The Civic Democrats can lead the national list vote in Florenzia while Labour wins most of the first declared constituency seats.

Amanjeet Singh can hold a major rally in the city without the Social Democrats dominating every local contest.

And Abigail Perez can win her own district outright while the Democratic Socialists remain a smaller party in the statewide constituency count.

THIS IS NOT A CONTRADICTION.\</b]

[b]THIS IS A MULTIPARTY DEMOCRACY WITH TWO HOUSE BALLOTS.

And a very complicated electoral map.

GIADA RICHI: STILL UNDECLARED. THE NATION IS WATCHING.

Now.

I know everyone's asking.

Has Prime Minister Giada Richi won her seat?

WE DO NOT HAVE A DECLARATION.

Not yet.

Her constituency in Florenzia remains outstanding.

And yes, I appreciate the political symbolism.

The Prime Minister's party has won 157 declared constituencies nationally.

The Liberal Democrats have a substantial national vote.

President Ossoff remains in office.

But the parliamentary leader of the governing party is still awaiting her own constituency result.

Now, that does not mean Richi is in electoral trouble.

We cannot infer that from the absence of a declaration.

Some constituencies take longer to count.

Some require further preference transfers.

Others may face administrative delays or close margins.

All we know is that the relevant electoral authority has not yet declared her constituency.

And I will not make up a result just because the television audience is impatient.

WE WILL WAIT FOR THE ACTUAL COUNT.

But I suspect Giada Richi's constituency is going to be one of the most closely watched remaining leadership contests.

And yes, I'll have the results on this board the moment they're formally declared.

NINETEEN BILLION VOTES: THE NATIONAL RACE IS STILL EXTRAORDINARILY CLOSE

Now, let's return to the national party vote.

19.270 BILLION VALID HOUSE PARTY-LIST BALLOTS REPORTED.

That's 64 percent of the expected valid count.

HOUSE NATIONAL PARTY-LIST VOTE

64.00% counted

Civic Democrats (DCT): 18.08%

Social Democrats (PSD): 17.62%

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 17.30%

Labour (PL): 16.13%

Democratic Socialists (SD): 12.86%

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 9.34%

Greens (PV): 5.04%

Communists (PC): 1.32%

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 1.17%

Socialists (PS): 0.72%

Tosler First (TP): 0.43%

OH, WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT.

Jessica Powers' Civic Democrats are STILL ahead.

18.08%.

And Amanjeet Singh's Social Democrats are at 17.62%.

A difference of just 0.46 percentage points.

The Liberal Democrats remain close at 17.30%.

Labour stands at 16.13%.

All four remain separated by less than two percentage points.

But now look at the constituency board.

Social Democrats: 343.

Labour: 283.

Liberal Democrats: 157.

Civic Democrats: 42.

FORTY-TWO.

And that, my friends, is the central puzzle of tonight's House election.

How does a political party that leads the national party-list vote have just 42 of the first 1,172 declared constituency victories?

The answer lies partly in electoral organization, candidate strength and ranked-choice transfers.

But it also lies in the fact that the two ballots are fundamentally different.

One measures national party support.

The other determines individual constituency representatives.

The compensatory seats will eventually connect those two elements within the electoral rules.

But not before the relevant results are complete.

So no, Jessica Powers' party is not being denied parliamentary representation because it has fewer local constituency victories.

And no, we cannot simply award it hundreds of compensatory seats before the count is finished.

THE FORMULA HAS TO WAIT FOR THE VOTES.

Which is a sentence I apparently need to repeat every fifteen minutes.

THE GREENS HAVE TWENTY-THREE SEATS. TWENTY-THREE!

Now.

The Greens.

I have been watching this party's national vote since eight o'clock.

First they were below five percent in the exit poll.

Then they climbed just above five percent in the initial counted returns.

Now, with 64 percent of the national House party-list vote reported—

THE GREENS ARE AT 5.04%.

Four-hundredths of a percentage point above the qualification threshold.

BUT WAIT.

Because something else has happened.

THE GREENS HAVE NOW WON 23 HOUSE CONSTITUENCIES.

Twenty-three.

And the alternative qualification threshold is 25.

THEY NEED TWO MORE DISTRICT VICTORIES TO SECURE THAT ALTERNATIVE ROUTE.

TWO.

That's the number.

Now, listen very carefully.

If the Greens eventually finish with at least five percent of the national House party-list vote, they qualify through the national vote threshold.

If they win at least 25 constituencies, they qualify through the district alternative.

The two routes are separate.

And the party is now very close to satisfying both.

But it has not yet secured either one through completed results.

The national vote remains incomplete.

And only 23 Green district victories have been declared.

So I'm not calling the qualification outcome just yet.

THAT WOULD BE PREMATURE.

But do you know what?

At this point, the Green Party has turned the number 25 into one of the most dramatic things on the entire election-night scoreboard.

I never thought I would spend an evening shouting about two missing Green constituencies.

And yet—

HERE WE ARE.

THE SOCIALISTS: FIFTY-FOUR SEATS WITH LESS THAN ONE PERCENT NATIONALLY

And then there are the Socialists.

Oh, the traditional Socialist Party.

I don't know whether to look at their national vote or their constituency count first.

Because these are two very different numbers.

NATIONAL HOUSE PARTY VOTE: 0.72%.

DECLARED HOUSE CONSTITUENCY VICTORIES: 54.

Fifty-four.

Remember, the Socialists had already crossed the 25-seat alternative threshold in our previous bulletin.

Now they have more than doubled that requirement.

And the local strength is visible in several places.

Look at Milaneze.

The country's largest city.

Thirty-five constituencies have been declared there.

FIFTEEN HAVE GONE TO THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS.

TEN HAVE GONE TO THE TRADITIONAL SOCIALISTS.

TEN.

Now, that's a fascinating division of political support.

The national House party vote in Milaneze remains very competitive between the Social Democrats and Civic Democrats.

But the Socialists are winning individual ranked-choice districts.

This is precisely the kind of result that demonstrates how a party can maintain strong local representation despite a relatively small national party-list vote.

And it is one of the reasons Tosler's reformed electoral system cannot be analyzed using national polling alone.

Because local party organization still matters.

Candidate recognition still matters.

Transfers still matter.

And sometimes a party with less than one percent nationally can win dozens of constituency seats.

THE SOCIALISTS ARE MAKING THAT POINT RATHER EMPHATICALLY TONIGHT.

BREAKING: WE HAVE OUR FIRST SENATORS!

FINALLY.

FINALLY!

Ladies and gentlemen, the Senate has officially entered the election-night declaration board.

After hours of watching proportional vote percentages and state-senator first preferences, we now have our first completed state Senate contests.

SIX CLASS A STATE-SENATOR SEATS HAVE BEEN DECLARED.

Here are the results.

NORTHERN LAGOONS

Lido Nord — LABOUR ELECTED

Lagunaria — LABOUR ELECTED

BELLACQUA BASIN

Settentria — SOCIAL DEMOCRAT ELECTED

Alta Guardia — SOCIAL DEMOCRAT ELECTED

GLEN AISLING REGION

Glen Aisling — LABOUR ELECTED

Loughvale — LIBERAL DEMOCRAT ELECTED

FIRST SENATE SEAT BOARD

Labour: 3

Social Democrats: 2

Liberal Democrats: 1

All other parties: 0

STATE SENATE CLASS A SEATS DECLARED: 6 / 150

PROPORTIONAL SENATE SEATS ALLOCATED: 0 / 200

NOW.

LOOK.

AT.

THAT.

Labour has won three of the first six state-senator seats.

The Social Democrats have won two.

And the Liberal Democrats have won one.

THE CIVIC DEMOCRATS HAVE NOT YET WON A DECLARED STATE-SENATOR SEAT.

Now, before anybody panics, remember that only six states have declared.

SIX.

Out of 150 Class A state-senator contests.

There is absolutely no basis for treating that tiny early batch as representative of the final Senate.

But I want to draw your attention to something particularly interesting.

LOUGHVALE.\</b]

The Liberal Democrats have won the state Senate contest there after the ranked-choice process.

The final two candidates were separated by fewer than three million votes.

Approximately 46 million for the Liberal Democrat.

Approximately 43 million for the Social Democrat.

Now, in a country where billions of people participate in national elections, those are still enormous numbers.

But relative to the size of the electorate, this was a relatively close final contest.

And the fact that preference transfers have now produced a declared winner is an important reminder that state-senator elections are not determined solely by first-preference shares.

The same is true for House constituencies.

We are watching Tosler's ranked-choice system operate in practice.

[b]AND WE HAVE ONE HUNDRED AND FORTY-FOUR STATE SENATE CONTESTS STILL TO DECLARE.

So please.

Don't start announcing the composition of the full Senate just yet.

THE SENATE PARTY LISTS: A SEPARATE POLITICAL UNIVERSE

Now, we're going to move to the proportional Senate ballots.

Because while Labour has won three of the first six declared state-senator contests—

The Civic Democrats are ahead in the reported proportional Senate vote.

SENATE CLASS A PROPORTIONAL LIST

64.00% counted

Civic Democrats: 18.51%

Social Democrats: 17.82%

Liberal Democrats: 17.12%

Labour: 16.10%

Democratic Socialists: 12.68%

Conservative Republicans: 9.22%

Greens: 4.97%

SENATE CLASS B PROPORTIONAL LIST

64.07% counted

Civic Democrats: 17.89%

Liberal Democrats: 17.58%

Social Democrats: 17.58%

Labour: 16.37%

Democratic Socialists: 12.73%

Conservative Republicans: 9.20%

Greens: 5.04%

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN.

LOOK AT CLASS B.

THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS.

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS.

SEVENTEEN-POINT-FIVE-EIGHT PERCENT EACH.

TIED.

TO TWO DECIMAL PLACES.

And the Civic Democrats are only 0.31 percentage points ahead of them.

But notice something else.

The Greens are below five percent on the Class A Senate list and above it on Class B.

Which is yet another reason we must not confuse the different ballots.

The Senate proportional allocations are not identical to the House compensatory allocation.

And the first six state-senator declarations do not establish the final division of the upper chamber.

WE HAVE FIVE DISTINCT ELECTORAL BALLOTS IN THIS ELECTION.

And they are all telling us somewhat different stories.

Which, frankly, is giving my graphics department a very demanding evening.

ROMIA AND LEXINGTON: THE MAP GETS MORE INTERESTING

Before we finish, I want to show you two more locations.

ROMIA.

Forty-two House constituencies have now been declared in the state.

The Social Democrats have won 24 of them.

TWENTY-FOUR.

The Liberal Democrats have six.

The Democratic Socialists have five.

The Marxist-Leninists have four.

Labour has three.

That is a substantial Social Democratic advantage in the declared constituencies of Tosler's second-largest city.

And remember: Amanjeet Singh himself has already been elected in Romia.

His party's local performance is becoming one of the night's important regional stories.

But now go to the federal capital.

THE DISTRICT OF LEXINGTON.\</b]

Forty-four constituencies have been declared.

And look at these results.

Labour: [b]23

Social Democrats: 15

Liberal Democrats: 6

Twenty-three Labour victories.

In the federal capital.

That is a very different constituency picture from the one that some viewers might have expected from the national party-list vote.

And again, ranked-choice constituency results can differ substantially from national party preferences.

This is not a uniform national swing.

It is a mosaic of regional contests.

And we are only beginning to see the complete picture.

THE LEADER BOARD: THREE ELECTED, ONE STILL WAITING

Let's bring up our four major leadership contests.

JESSICA POWERS — ELECTED

Civic Democrats | Silciano

AMANJEET SINGH — ELECTED

Social Democrats | Romia

ABIGAIL PEREZ — ELECTED

Democratic Socialists | Florenzia

GIADA RICHI — NOT YET DECLARED

Liberal Democrats | Florenzia

And we continue to watch the remaining parliamentary party leaders and former Labour leader John Reynolds.

His individual constituency result is not yet declared either.

Now, it's worth remembering that political leaders are not elected simply because their party gains national votes.

Each candidate must secure a seat through the applicable election rules.

And although constituency defeat may leave open a route through proportional representation, there is no need to speculate about that until the relevant results are available.

Tonight, we can say three prominent party leaders have been elected in their local constituencies.

Jessica Powers.

Amanjeet Singh.

Abigail Perez.

Prime Minister Giada Richi remains awaiting a formal declaration.

THAT IS WHERE THE LEADERSHIP BOARD STANDS AT 11:43 P.M.

JOHN QUEEN: "THIS COUNTRY IS ELECTING A PARLIAMENT, NOT A TELEVISION GRAPHIC."

Now, ladies and gentlemen.

Before we head toward midnight, I want to leave you with the most important point of the evening.

We have counted more than 19 billion national House party-list votes.

We have elected 1,172 House constituency representatives.

We have declared our first six state senators.

Three of the four major party leaders we've been following most closely have secured their individual seats.

The Social Democrats have a substantial lead in declared House constituencies.

Labour remains a major force.

The Liberal Democrats are winning seats, despite a national list vote below their election-eve poll.

The Democratic Socialists have elected their leader and more than a hundred constituency representatives.

The traditional Socialists have won 54 local seats.

And the Greens are TWO district victories away from clearing their alternative proportional threshold.

Meanwhile—

THE CIVIC DEMOCRATS STILL LEAD THE NATIONAL HOUSE PARTY-LIST VOTE.

That remains true.

With 64 percent counted.

But the constituency results tell a very different story.

And this is precisely why the final composition of the House cannot be established until the electoral process is complete.

We need the remaining 828 constituency results.

We need the remaining national party-list ballots.

We need the compensatory allocation.

We need the Senate declarations and proportional allocations.

And after all that—

We need to determine how the newly elected National Assembly will select a prime minister.

Because Liam Ossoff remains President.

His term continues until 2028.

But the next parliamentary government will depend on the choices of the newly elected legislature.

And with the parties distributed as they are, those choices may prove highly consequential.

BUT WE HAVE NOT REACHED THAT POINT YET.

Not even close.

So let me summarize.

NINETEEN BILLION HOUSE VOTES.

ONE THOUSAND, ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTY-TWO HOUSE MEMBERS ELECTED.

SIX STATE SENATORS DECLARED.

THREE MAJOR PARTY LEADERS RETURNED TO PARLIAMENT.

EIGHT HUNDRED AND TWENTY-EIGHT HOUSE DISTRICTS STILL OUTSTANDING.

And a national party vote that remains extraordinarily close.

Ladies and gentlemen—

MIDNIGHT IS APPROACHING.

And I have a feeling this country is going to be talking about these numbers for a very long time.

But tonight, we're not finished.

Not remotely.

So stay with us.

Keep watching the constituency board.

Keep watching the Senate.

And, for the love of all things democratic—

STOP TRYING TO DECLARE THE NEXT PRIME MINISTER BEFORE WE HAVE FINISHED COUNTING THE ACTUAL VOTES.

Thank you.

THIS IS JOHN QUEEN.

THIS IS TNN.

AND THIS ELECTION NIGHT IS NOT EVEN CLOSE TO OVER.

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN. WE HAVE A SITUATION.

LEXINGTON CITY — OH, WOULD YOU LOOK AT THAT.

Would. You. Look. At. That.

I need the national map.

I need the constituency board.

And somebody, PLEASE, bring me the latest parliamentary arithmetic.

Because we have just received another enormous wave of election results.

THIRTEEN BILLION VOTES.

SIX HUNDRED AND SIX ELECTED REPRESENTATIVES.

TWO MAJOR PARTY LEADERS RETURNED TO PARLIAMENT.

And a political party that was polling below one percent nationally has just done something that could have consequences for the allocation of the next House of Representatives.

I'm talking about the traditional Socialist Party.

Yes.

THE SOCIALISTS.

But first—

I want everybody to look at the constituency board.

Because the party that was leading in our first batch of declarations?

No longer has the largest number of declared seats.

And the party leading the national House party vote?

Still has dramatically fewer declared constituency victories than its principal rivals.

WELCOME TO THE NEW TOSLERIAN ELECTORAL SYSTEM, EVERYBODY.

And please keep your hands and feet inside the constitutional framework at all times.

THE HOUSE: 606 SEATS DECLARED

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES — DECLARED CONSTITUENCIES

606 of 2,000 districts declared

Social Democrats (PSD): 124

Labour (PL): 123

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 101

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 88

Democratic Socialists (SD): 86

Socialists (PS): 35

Greens (PV): 16

Civic Democrats (DCT): 14

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 10

Independents: 5

Communists (PC): 4

TOTAL: 606 SEATS DECLARED

DISTRICTS STILL OUTSTANDING: 1,394

COMPENSATORY HOUSE SEATS ALLOCATED: 0 OF 1,000

WAIT. DID THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS JUST TAKE THE LEAD?!

YES.

In declared constituency seats, they have.

The Social Democrats now have 124.

Labour has 123.

ONE SEAT SEPARATES THEM.

ONE.

And I want to be very clear about what that means.

We are not announcing that Amanjeet Singh has won the parliamentary election.

We are not announcing that Giada Richi has lost the government.

We are not announcing that Labour has somehow secured a majority.

We have declared 606 of the 2,000 constituencies.

There are another 1,394 to go.

And we haven't allocated a single compensatory seat.

But within the constituencies declared so far, the Social Democrats have moved into first place.

And that is significant.

Because this is a party that has spent years trying to rebuild its position after the political divisions of the Mohammadi presidency and the emergence of Labour as a competing force.

Amanjeet Singh has led that recovery.

And now, tonight, his party has 124 declared constituency victories.

Think about where we were at the previous bulletin.

The Social Democrats had just 15 declared seats.

They have now reached 124.

That doesn't mean they won 109 seats in a single coordinated national swing.

It means an enormous new batch of constituencies has completed counting, and the distribution of those declarations has changed the political scoreboard.

But it is a striking change nonetheless.

And right behind them?

LABOUR. AT ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-THREE.

One seat behind.

You could not have written a more complicated early parliamentary story if you tried.

BREAKING: AMANJEET SINGH HAS BEEN ELECTED IN ROMIA

There it is.

We can now confirm that Social Democratic leader Amanjeet Singh has been elected to the House of Representatives.

AMANJEET SINGH — ELECTED.

PARTY: SOCIAL DEMOCRATS (PSD)

STATE: ROMIA

CONSTITUENCY: S071-D39

FIRST-PREFERENCE SUPPORT: 46.54%

The ranked-choice count has concluded in his constituency.

Singh has been returned.

And that is an important personal result for the Social Democratic leader.

Remember, Singh served as vice president under Amira Mohammadi.

He helped build the political movement that supported Mohammadi's original rise to the presidency.

And this election has been an opportunity for him to demonstrate that the Social Democrats can once again compete as a major national parliamentary force.

Last night, Mohammadi appeared alongside him at his final campaign rally in Florenzia.

Tonight, Singh has secured his own parliamentary seat in Romia.

AND HIS PARTY HAS THE MOST DECLARED CONSTITUENCY VICTORIES AT THIS STAGE OF THE COUNT.

Now, I want everyone to keep that second statement in perspective.

It is the largest number of seats declared so far.

Not the projected final House total.

Not a majority.

Not a government.

But it is still a significant political development.

And let me tell you something else.

The Social Democrats are showing real strength in Romia.

Twenty-seven constituencies have now been declared in the state.

TWELVE HAVE GONE TO THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS.

Six to the Liberal Democrats.

Four to the Democratic Socialists.

Four to the Marxist-Leninists.

And one to Labour.

There is a great deal happening in Romia tonight.

But the headline is clear.

AMANJEET SINGH IS RETURNING TO PARLIAMENT.

AND NOW — JESSICA POWERS HAS WON HER SEAT.

OH.

NOW THIS IS INTERESTING.

Because we have another major leadership declaration.

JESSICA POWERS — ELECTED.

PARTY: CIVIC DEMOCRATS (DCT)

STATE: SILCIANO

CONSTITUENCY: S147-D18

FIRST-PREFERENCE SUPPORT: 29.17%

Jessica Powers has won her House constituency.

And not on first preferences alone.

In the ranked-choice count, her support expanded substantially through preference transfers.

In the final contest against Labour, the Civic Democrat candidate finished with approximately 9.46 million votes, compared with Labour's 5.84 million.

THE FOUNDER OF THE CIVIC DEMOCRATS IS GOING TO PARLIAMENT.

Now think about this.

Five weeks ago, her political party did not exist.

Earlier this year, she was serving as President Ossoff's National Security Adviser.

In June, she resigned following their disagreement over nuclear rearmament.

On September 28, she announced the Civic Democrats.

Last night, she held her final campaign rally in Silciano City, in the President's political heartland.

And tonight?

SHE HAS WON HER OWN CONSTITUENCY IN SILCIANO.

That is a consequential personal victory.

But—

And this is where things get absolutely fascinating—

HER PARTY HAS WON ONLY FOURTEEN OF THE FIRST 606 DECLARED CONSTITUENCIES.

Fourteen.

Yet it continues to lead the national House party-list vote.

Do you see the contrast?

Jessica Powers has succeeded personally in a ranked-choice constituency.

Her new party has also attracted a substantial national list vote.

But its local candidates have not, in this early batch of declarations, won constituencies at anything like the same rate as several older political organizations.

This distinction is going to be one of the defining questions of the count.

And with 1,394 constituencies remaining, the picture may still change substantially.

But for tonight, one thing is settled.

JESSICA POWERS HAS A SEAT IN THE NEXT HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.

And I suspect we have not heard the last of her.

THIRTEEN BILLION VOTES: THE NATIONAL PARTY COUNT

Now let's put the national House party ballot back on the screen.

Because we have reached another enormous milestone.

13.248 BILLION VALID BALLOTS REPORTED.

That's 44 percent of the expected valid national House party-list vote.

HOUSE NATIONAL PARTY-LIST VOTE

44.00% counted

Civic Democrats (DCT): 18.07%

Social Democrats (PSD): 17.61%

Liberal Democrats (PLD): 17.29%

Labour (PL): 16.14%

Democratic Socialists (SD): 12.88%

Conservative Republicans (PRC): 9.34%

Greens (PV): 5.03%

Communists (PC): 1.32%

Marxist-Leninists (PML): 1.16%

Socialists (PS): 0.72%

Tosler First (TP): 0.43%

LOOK.

AT.

THAT.

The Civic Democrats still lead the reported national list vote.

The Social Democrats remain less than half a percentage point behind.

The Liberal Democrats remain close.

And Labour is not far away.

But now compare those numbers with the constituency scoreboard.

Civic Democrats: 18.07% nationally.

Fourteen declared constituencies.

Social Democrats: 17.61% nationally.

One hundred and twenty-four declared constituencies.

Labour: 16.14% nationally.

One hundred and twenty-three declared constituencies.

THE PARTY LEADING THE NATIONAL LIST VOTE HAS WON FAR FEWER CONSTITUENCIES THAN THE PARTIES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND IT.

That is not a mathematical contradiction.

It is evidence that different ballots and different electoral mechanisms are producing different kinds of results.

And this is exactly why proportional compensation was introduced.

But do not ask me for a final compensatory seat allocation tonight.

We do not know the final party votes.

We do not know the final constituency totals.

And we do not yet know every party's eligibility status.

WE ARE GOING TO COUNT THE ACTUAL VOTES BEFORE WE START HANDING OUT A THOUSAND HOUSE SEATS.

Thank you.

HOLD THE PHONE. THE SOCIALISTS HAVE CROSSED TWENTY-FIVE.

OH, THIS IS A BIG ONE.

A very big one.

Because we have been watching the Green Party's national five-percent threshold all evening.

But while everybody was staring at the Greens—

THE TRADITIONAL SOCIALIST PARTY HAS WON THIRTY-FIVE CONSTITUENCIES.

Thirty-five!

Not the Democratic Socialists.

The traditional Socialists.

The party currently registering just 0.72% of the national House party-list vote.

And under Tosler's electoral rules, a party can qualify for compensatory representation by securing at least five percent of the national party vote OR by winning at least 25 constituency seats.

THE SOCIALISTS HAVE NOW CLEARED THE TWENTY-FIVE-SEAT ALTERNATIVE.\</b>

That is enormous.

Not because it automatically determines how many compensatory seats they will receive.

It does not.

The final allocation will depend on the completed counts and the electoral formula.

But they have cleared a critical eligibility requirement through constituency victories.

And look at where some of those seats are coming from.

In Milaneze, five of the first 18 declared constituencies have gone to the Socialists.

The party is also securing victories in other regions where its established local organizations remain strong.

Now this is precisely the sort of outcome the district-qualification alternative was designed to recognize.

A party can have a small national party-list share but a meaningful and geographically concentrated constituency base.

And if that party wins enough local seats, its strength cannot be dismissed simply because it fails to reach five percent nationally.

Ladies and gentlemen—

[b]THE SOCIALISTS HAVE JUST BECOME ONE OF THE BIGGEST CONSTITUTIONAL STORIES OF THE NIGHT.

And to think we were all staring at the Green Party's second decimal place.

THE GREENS: I AM STILL WATCHING YOU.

Speaking of which.

The Greens.

Oh, the Greens.

I have not forgotten about you.

5.03%.

That's the current reported national House party-list vote.

Three-hundredths of a percentage point above the five-percent threshold.

They have also won 16 constituency seats.

Sixteen.

Not yet 25.

So unlike the Socialists, they have not established eligibility through the alternative district route.

And their final national vote remains uncertain.

But there is a fascinating contrast here.

The Socialists have qualified through local constituency victories despite a national party vote below one percent.

The Greens remain dependent on the outstanding count to determine whether they will clear either qualifying threshold.

TWO PARTIES. TWO VERY DIFFERENT ROADS THROUGH THE SAME ELECTORAL SYSTEM.

And the count is nowhere near finished.

THE LABOUR PARTY IS NOT DISAPPEARING, PEOPLE.

Now.

Labour.

One hundred and twenty-three declared seats.

ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY-THREE.\</b]

I know we spent much of the campaign discussing Labour's declining national polling support.

I know we discussed its participation in the Liberal Democratic governing coalition.

I know we examined John Reynolds' decision to leave the party leadership and become Secretary of Labour in President Ossoff's administration.

But look at the constituency results.

Labour is one seat behind the Social Democrats.

One.

Its established district organizations are securing victories across multiple states.

And there is a particularly interesting story emerging in Florenzia.

Ten constituencies have now been declared in the state.

[b]LABOUR HAS WON SEVEN.

The Social Democrats have won two.

The Liberal Democrats have won one.

Now compare that with the reported national party-list vote in Florenzia.

The Civic Democrats lead that ballot in the state at approximately 20.83%.

The Social Democrats are at approximately 18.33%.

Labour is at approximately 16.21%.

And the Liberal Democrats are at approximately 15.20%.

YET LABOUR HAS SEVEN OF THE TEN DECLARED LOCAL SEATS.

Now, that does not mean Labour will ultimately win the most constituencies in Florenzia.

But it certainly illustrates why the two House ballots cannot be treated as interchangeable.

And it suggests that Labour's local electoral organization remains consequential.

The party held its final campaign rally in Bologniati.

Its national vote has declined substantially from earlier in the campaign.

But tonight, it is still electing substantial numbers of House representatives.

DO NOT CONFUSE A DECLINING NATIONAL VOTE SHARE WITH AN ABSENCE OF ELECTORAL STRENGTH./b]

The count is telling a more complicated story.

[b]THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS: ONE HUNDRED AND ONE SEATS, AND RICHI STILL WAITING

Now let's go to the Liberal Democrats.

One hundred and one constituencies declared.

Prime Minister Giada Richi's party has crossed the century mark.

But it is currently behind both the Social Democrats and Labour in the declared constituency count.

And behind the Civic Democrats and Social Democrats in the reported national party-list vote.

We are seeing the consequences of a much more fragmented electoral environment.

But the Liberal Democrats retain a substantial parliamentary presence.

They are winning local races.

And they are competing nationally.

Now, one question I'm getting repeatedly tonight concerns Prime Minister Richi herself.

HAS GIADA RICHI BEEN ELECTED?

Not yet declared.

Her Florenzia constituency is still outstanding.

And her individual result cannot be inferred from the broader party vote in Florenzia.

That distinction matters.

Because while Ossoff remains President until 2028, Richi's position as prime minister will depend on the composition and decisions of the newly elected National Assembly.

Tonight is not a presidential election.

It is a parliamentary election.

And the Liberal Democrats are defending their parliamentary position in a political landscape that looks very different from the one in which they entered government.

GIADA RICHI'S PERSONAL CONTEST REMAINS ONE OF THE MAJOR LEADERSHIP RESULTS STILL TO COME.

THE CONSERVATIVES HAVE EIGHTY-EIGHT SEATS. HELLO?!

And while we've been discussing the parties of the centre and left—

EIGHTY-EIGHT CONSERVATIVE REPUBLICAN CONSTITUENCIES HAVE BEEN DECLARED.

Eighty-eight.

Their national House party-list vote is 9.34%.

But their constituency results have already given them a substantial elected presence.

They are now the fourth-largest party in declared district seats.

Ahead of the Democratic Socialists.

Ahead of the Civic Democrats.

Ahead of the Greens.

And that matters.

Because the Conservatives have their own distinct regional electoral bases.

They are not simply another faction of the Liberal Democratic or Social Democratic traditions.

They have their own voters, their own candidates and their own political priorities.

The party's performance in individual constituencies may therefore give it an important role in the composition of the next Parliament.

But please.

Let's not start assigning cabinet portfolios.

WE STILL HAVE MORE THAN A THOUSAND DISTRICTS TO COUNT.

THE SENATE: NOW THIS IS JUST GETTING RIDICULOUSLY CLOSE

Now I'm going to the Senate board.

Because I don't think you understand how close one of these proportional counts is becoming.

SENATE CLASS A PROPORTIONAL LIST

Approximately 44.00% counted

Civic Democrats: 18.50%

Social Democrats: 17.81%

Liberal Democrats: 17.10%

Labour: 16.14%

Democratic Socialists: 12.68%

Greens: 4.96%

SENATE CLASS B PROPORTIONAL LIST

Approximately 44.08% counted

Civic Democrats: 17.87%

Liberal Democrats: 17.59%

Social Democrats: 17.59%

Labour: 16.37%

Democratic Socialists: 12.73%

Greens: 5.05%

NOW.

LOOK.

AT.

CLASS B.

The Liberal Democrats: 17.59%.

The Social Democrats: 17.59%.

THEY ARE TIED TO TWO DECIMAL PLACES.

TIED.

And the Civic Democrats are ahead of both at 17.87%.

This is a separate ballot from the House election.

It will be allocated under its own proportional rules.

And we still have to account for the state-senator contests.

NO NEW SENATE SEATS HAVE BEEN FORMALLY DECLARED YET.

The 150 continuing state senators remain in office, but they are not being newly elected tonight.

So once again, I have to ask everyone to be patient.

And yes, I realize I'm asking for patience while pointing excitedly at a television screen containing several billion votes.

But that's election night.

THE LEADER BOARD: TWO ELECTED. TWO STILL WAITING.

Let's put the four prominent party leaders on the screen.

AMANJEET SINGH — SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

ELECTED — ROMIA

JESSICA POWERS — CIVIC DEMOCRATS

ELECTED — SILCIANO

GIADA RICHI — LIBERAL DEMOCRATS

NOT YET DECLARED — FLORENZIA

ABIGAIL PEREZ — DEMOCRATIC SOCIALISTS

NOT YET DECLARED — FLORENZIA

Now let's be clear.

Two leaders have secured their individual House constituencies.

Two remain in undeclared contests.

That is not a prediction about their eventual results.

It is the position of the actual declarations available to us.

And there is another distinction to remember.

Under Tosler's electoral system, a candidate defeated locally may still be elected through a proportional party list if eligible under the relevant rules.

So a constituency defeat would not necessarily end a leader's parliamentary prospects.

But for Powers and Singh, that question is settled.

Both have secured constituency seats.

And their election-night stories are very different.

Singh leads a longstanding political party that is currently ahead in declared constituency victories.

Powers leads a new political party that is ahead in the national House party-list count but has won relatively few of the constituencies declared so far.

BOTH ARE ELECTED./b]

[b]THEIR PARTIES ARE FOLLOWING VERY DIFFERENT ELECTORAL PATHS./b]

And that may prove important when we begin examining the structure of the next Parliament.

[b]JOHN QUEEN: "THIS IS ABSOLUTELY NOT A NORMAL ELECTION NIGHT."

Ladies and gentlemen.

Take a look at where we are.

It's not even eleven o'clock.

We have counted more than 13 billion national House party-list votes.

We have declared 606 constituencies.

The Social Democrats have moved into first place in declared district seats.

Labour is one seat behind.

The Liberal Democrats have passed 100 elected constituency members.

The Conservative Republicans have 88.

The Democratic Socialists have 86.

The traditional Socialists have won 35 and crossed the alternative proportional qualification threshold.

The Greens remain almost exactly at five percent nationally.

Jessica Powers has been elected.

Amanjeet Singh has been elected.

Giada Richi and Abigail Perez are still awaiting their individual declarations.

And the Civic Democrats continue to lead the reported national House party vote, even though their constituency seat count remains far smaller than that of several other parties.

THIS IS EXTRAORDINARY.

Not because we know who has won the parliamentary election.

We do not.

Not because we know who will be prime minister.

We absolutely do not.

And not because the first 606 constituency declarations necessarily predict what will happen in the remaining 1,394.

They don't.

This is extraordinary because the new electoral system is revealing the different dimensions of Tosler's political competition.

National party allegiance.

Local candidate support.

Ranked-choice transfers.

Regional political traditions.

Smaller-party constituencies.

And the ability of new political organizations to compete alongside established parties.

All of those forces are operating simultaneously.

THE NEXT NATIONAL ASSEMBLY IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE.\</b]

But there is still an enormous amount of counting ahead.

And I want to remind everyone of something fundamental.

[b]THE PRESIDENT IS NOT BEING ELECTED TONIGHT.

Liam Ossoff remains President.

The prime minister will be chosen by the new National Assembly.

And the parliamentary arithmetic necessary for that decision cannot be settled until we know much more about the composition of both chambers.

So put away those premature government-formation announcements.

Put away the predictions based on one national percentage.

And keep watching the declared seats.

Because the country is electing 3,000 House members and filling 350 contested Senate seats.

And the result will be determined by the actual ballots.

THIRTEEN BILLION VOTES.

SIX HUNDRED AND SIX HOUSE MEMBERS ELECTED.

TWO MAJOR PARTY LEADERS RETURNED.

AND A SOCIALIST PARTY THAT JUST CLEARED A CRUCIAL CONSTITUTIONAL THRESHOLD.

I have been doing this for a long time.

And I will tell you something.

I cannot remember the last time a single national election produced so many different electoral stories before eleven o'clock.

But the most important ones may still be ahead.

THIS IS JOHN QUEEN.

THIS IS TNN.

AND WE ARE NOT GOING ANYWHERE.

READ JOHN QUEEN'S EARLIER ELECTION NIGHT COVERAGE: nation=tosler/detail=factbook/id=2829291.

TNN National Poll of Polls: Tracking the changing political landscape throughout the 2026 general election campaign.

By John Queen | TNN Political Commentator | The Ledger

Welcome to The Road to November, my weekly look at the polling, the political parties, and the developments shaping Tosler’s November 3 general election.

Every week, I’ll be looking beyond the headline numbers to examine what’s moving, what’s holding steady, and what the polls can — and cannot — tell us about the next National Assembly.

Updates appear in reverse chronological order, with the newest analysis at the top.

NOVEMBER 2, 2026 | ELECTION EVE

Four parties. Two percentage points. And billions of voters still making up their minds.

Well, here we are.

After nine weeks of polling, thousands of constituency contests, a constitutional transformation, and the arrival of an entirely new national political party, Tosler is finally preparing to vote.

And I have to tell you, these final numbers are extraordinary.

THE FINAL TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD — Liberal Democrats: 19.2%
DCT — Civic Democrats: 19.0%
PSD — Social Democrats: 18.3%
PL — Labour: 17.2%
PRC — Conservative Republicans: 10.0%
SD — Democratic Socialists: 7.5%
PV — Greens: 5.2%
PC — Communists: 1.4%
PML — Marxist-Leninists: 1.2%
PS — Socialists: 0.6%
TP — Tosler First: 0.4%

Undecided likely voters: 8%, reported separately.

Let’s start with the obvious.

Four parties are separated by just two percentage points.

The Liberal Democrats stand at 19.2%, Jessica Powers’ Civic Democrats are at 19.0%, the Social Democrats are at 18.3%, and Labour is at 17.2%.

We have not seen a national polling picture like this at any point during the campaign.

THE POWERS SURGE

When Jessica Powers launched the Civic Democrats on September 28, the political landscape looked very different.

The Liberal Democrats were polling above 30%. Labour was comfortably in second place. The Social Democrats were building support, but the two established leading parties still dominated the conversation.

Today, the Liberal Democrats and Civic Democrats are separated by just two-tenths of a point.

Powers has taken a party that did not exist six weeks ago and established it as a major national political organization.

Her previous service as prime minister and, more recently, President Ossoff’s National Security Adviser gave her an unusual degree of public recognition for the founder of a new party.

But recognition alone does not explain the polling movement. The Civic Democrats have been able to present themselves as a distinct centrist alternative while attracting support in a changing political environment.

Whether that support translates into constituency victories is another question entirely.

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS AND LABOUR

Now look at the Social Democrats.

They began September at 11%. Tonight, they’re at 18.3%.

That’s a substantial increase over nine weeks.

Labour, meanwhile, has fallen from 26% to 17.2%.

The parties have followed very different trajectories, and the result is a national contest in which their polling figures are now separated by just 1.1 points.

Then there’s Abigail Perez.

Her Democratic Socialists are now polling at 7.5%, up from 5.7% a week ago.

That is a significant late movement, and one that raises questions about competition among Labour, the Democratic Socialists and the established socialist parties.

The older Socialist Party remains at just 0.6% nationally, but its local organizations and longstanding constituency bases mean we should not automatically translate that small national party-vote share into the disappearance of Socialist representation.

This is precisely why the distinction between the national party ballot and individual district contests matters.

AND THEN THERE ARE THE UNDECIDED VOTERS…

Now, there’s one number I haven’t talked nearly enough about tonight.

And frankly, it may be the most consequential number on our entire polling dashboard.

Eight percent.

That’s the proportion of likely voters who, on the eve of the election, still haven’t settled on a party.

Think about that for a moment.

We have the Liberal Democrats at 19.2%, the Civic Democrats at 19.0%, the Social Democrats at 18.3%, and Labour at 17.2%.

Those figures are calculated among voters who have made up their minds or are leaning toward a party.

But 8% of likely voters are still undecided.

TNN estimates that approximately 30.6 billion Toslerians are eligible to vote, with projected turnout of 98.8%.

That would mean roughly 30.23 billion voters participating tomorrow.

If the undecided share holds among those who ultimately cast a ballot, we’re talking about approximately 2.4 billion voters who are still making their final decision tonight.

Two. Point. Four. Billion.

Let me put that into perspective.

The gap between the Liberal Democrats and Civic Democrats is just 0.2 percentage points among decided and leaning voters.

The number of people who remain undecided is vastly larger than the gap currently separating the leading parties.

Now, that does not mean all those voters will make the same choice. They won’t. Some may divide among the parties in proportions similar to existing supporters. Others may move disproportionately toward one or more parties. And some may ultimately decline to cast a party ballot.

We simply do not know how those final decisions will be distributed.

And here’s another wrinkle.

Tosler permits election-day voter registration. That means the final certified electorate won’t even be known until the electoral authorities reconcile registrations following voting.

So we have enormous polling samples, an extraordinary amount of demographic information, and sophisticated models of voting intentions.

But we also have billions of people who have not settled on their final choice.

When someone asks me tonight whether a particular party will finish first, I point them to that eight-percent figure.

It’s the clearest reminder of the uncertainty still facing us.

WHAT ABOUT THE HOUSE?

Under the new electoral arrangements, Tosler will elect a 3,000-member House of Representatives.

Two thousand members will be chosen in ranked-choice constituencies, while another thousand seats will be allocated through the compensatory system.

TNN’s latest House seat projection is as follows:

Liberal Democrats: 579
Civic Democrats: 574
Social Democrats: 552
Labour: 519
Conservative Republicans: 304
Democratic Socialists: 227
Greens: 159
Socialists: 58
Marxist-Leninists: 12
Communists: 10
Independents: 6
Tosler First: 0

That projection produces a closely divided Parliament, with significant representation across several political movements.

But remember: it is a projection, not an election result.

Individual district outcomes depend on candidate support, geography, turnout and the transfer of ranked preferences.

National party-list polling alone cannot tell us which candidates will win Tosler’s 2,000 House constituencies.

And the Senate is another contest entirely.

THE FINAL WORD

This has been one of the most remarkable campaigns I’ve covered.

The Liberal Democrats have gone from a commanding national polling advantage to a near tie with a party established only five weeks ago. Newsflash to all party leaders: don’t take decisions that result in resignations from your party’s old guard.

The Social Democrats have recovered substantially.

Labour has lost ground. Perhaps not surprising with their close alliance with the Liberal Democrats, which has alienated some of their more ardently left-wing supporters.

The Democratic Socialists have strengthened their position within Tosler’s left, to the detriment of the older Socialist Party.

And tomorrow, more than 30 billion people could participate in the first election under the country’s new constitutional framework.

We have an extraordinary amount of polling information.

But we still have an extraordinary number of voters who haven’t told us what they’re going to do, 8% of whom haven’t even decided who they are to vote for. What could be more Tosler than that?

And ultimately, they don’t owe us an answer. They owe nobody an answer until they cast their ballots and tell Tosler what they want to happen.

That’s democracy.

I’ll see you on election night, AKA 16 hours from now.

— John Queen

OCTOBER 27, 2026 | ONE WEEK TO GO

The four-party contest is becoming impossible to ignore.

Look at these numbers this morning.

TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD 22.6% | PSD 19.5% | PL 17.8% | DCT 14.5%

PRC 10.0% | PV 6.0% | SD 5.7%

PC 1.3% | PML 1.1% | PS 1.1% | TP 0.4%

The Liberal Democrats retain the highest national polling figure, but their gap over the Social Democrats has narrowed to just 3.1 points.

Labour is now below 18%.

And the Civic Democrats have climbed to 14.5%.

What interests me most is how dramatically the campaign’s centre of gravity has shifted.

At the beginning of September, this looked principally like a contest between the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

The Social Democrats, Greens, Conservatives and Democratic Socialists were competing for significant but smaller shares of the national vote.

Now we have four parties registering between 14.5% and 22.6%.

Jessica Powers’ emergence has fundamentally altered the national political conversation.

Her party has gained support in every weekly polling average since its creation.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats have quietly climbed from 11% at the beginning of September to 19.5% today.

That is a remarkable change in their national standing.

LABOUR’S DIFFICULT POSITION

Labour is now polling at 17.8%, a decline of more than eight points since September 1.

And there is another development worth watching.

Abigail Perez’s Democratic Socialists, currently at 5.7%, remain a substantial force on Tosler’s left.

Labour is competing not only with the Social Democrats, but also with the Democratic Socialists, Greens and other established progressive organizations.

That competition will matter both nationally and in individual constituencies.

A WEEK IS A LONG TIME

We’re just seven days away from election day.

The national polls are considerably closer than they were a month ago, but we shouldn’t forget that voters have two distinct House choices: their national party preference and their ranked constituency ballot.

The latter will be decided in 2,000 individual contests.

Those local results could complicate the relationship between the national vote and final parliamentary representation.

One week to go.

And there’s still a great deal we don’t know.

— John Queen

OCTOBER 20, 2026 | THE POWERS EFFECT

Jessica Powers has crossed into double digits.

That is the major development in this week’s TNN Poll of Polls.

The Civic Democrats now stand at 11.4%, up from 7.5% a week ago.

THIS WEEK’S NUMBERS

PLD 25.2% | PL 19.2% | PSD 18.7% | DCT 11.4%

PRC 9.8% | PV 6.3% | SD 5.8%

PC 1.1% | PS 1.1% | PML 1.0% | TP 0.4%

Consider what this means.

In just three weeks, Powers has taken a newly established political party from the margins of national polling to a double-digit share of the electorate.

The Liberal Democrats have declined over that same period, though we should be careful about assuming every lost Liberal Democrat voter is moving directly to Powers.

Some may be reconsidering their choices more broadly. Others may be looking at the Social Democrats or other parties.

The polling can identify changes in national support, but determining the precise movement of individual voters requires more detailed research.

LABOUR AND THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS

Here’s another number that deserves attention.

Labour: 19.2%.

Social Democrats: 18.7%.

That’s a difference of just half a percentage point.

At the beginning of September, those parties were separated by fifteen points.

The Social Democrats have been gaining ground steadily, while Labour has experienced a gradual decline.

THE NEW ELECTORAL MATH

Under the new electoral system, these national party-vote figures will directly influence the allocation of compensatory House seats.

But they don’t automatically tell us which party will have the largest parliamentary caucus.

That’s why TNN is developing separate constituency models, incorporating district first preferences and ranked-choice transfers.

The party-list ballot and the constituency ballot are two separate decisions.

Two weeks out, that distinction is becoming increasingly important.

— John Queen

OCTOBER 13, 2026 | THE FIVE-PERCENT LINE

An important milestone for the Civic Democrats today.

Jessica Powers’ party has reached 7.5% in our latest polling average, moving above the national five-percent threshold for qualification for compensatory House representation.

Here’s the picture.

TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD 27.6% | PL 20.6% | PSD 17.6%

PRC 9.8% | DCT 7.5% | PV 7.3% | SD 6.4%

PS 1.1% | PC 0.9% | PML 0.8% | TP 0.4%

The new electoral system makes that five-percent line politically significant.

A party can also qualify for proportional allocation by winning at least 25 constituencies, but reaching five percent nationally provides a separate route to qualification.

The Civic Democrats are now above that mark.

So are the Greens and Democratic Socialists.

THREE DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENTS

What we’re seeing is not a single straightforward shift from one party to another.

The Liberal Democrats have been declining in national support.

The Social Democrats have been growing.

And the Civic Democrats, only recently established, are registering increasingly substantial support.

Labour is also losing ground.

These trends are happening at the same time, but that doesn’t mean they all have the same explanation.

THE SOCIALIST QUESTION

The Democratic Socialists remain above six percent nationally, although their polling has softened somewhat since September.

Abigail Perez’s party continues to compete with Labour, the Greens and the older Socialist Party for voters on the left.

The Socialist Party itself is polling at 1.1%.

But it would be a mistake to assume that 1.1% national support means 1.1% of House seats.

The Socialists have established constituency organizations and locally recognized representatives.

They may remain competitive in particular districts even where their national party-vote support is modest.

This is exactly the kind of distinction we’re going to need to watch on election night.

— John Queen

OCTOBER 6, 2026 | A NEW PARTY TAKES SHAPE

One week after Jessica Powers launched the Civic Democrats, we have our first clearer indication of the party’s support.

The DCT has reached 4.6% in today’s average, up from 1.5% in last week’s initial reading.

TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD 29.9% | PL 21.7% | PSD 16.1%

PRC 9.5% | PV 8.2% | SD 6.9% | DCT 4.6%

PS 1.2% | PC 0.8% | PML 0.7% | TP 0.4%

The Liberal Democrats have also dropped below 30% for the first time in this campaign.

A few things stand out.

Powers brings something unusual to a new political party: an established national profile, experience as prime minister, and a recent senior role in President Ossoff’s administration.

Her departure as National Security Adviser following the President’s June nuclear rearmament announcement has become a significant political story.

But converting personal recognition into electoral support is a different challenge.

BUILDING A NATIONAL PARTY

The Civic Democrats must organize candidates, establish local campaigns and build an organization capable of contesting elections across Tosler’s 150 states.

And with just four weeks remaining, time is not unlimited.

At 4.6%, they are approaching the national proportional-representation threshold.

Whether they cross that line is one question.

Whether they can build enough local support to win individual constituencies is another.

THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC RECOVERY CONTINUES

While the Civic Democrats attract attention, we shouldn’t overlook the Social Democrats.

They’ve climbed to 16.1%, up from 11% on September 1.

Labour, meanwhile, has declined to 21.7%.

The difference between the two parties is narrowing.

The Liberal Democrats remain ahead nationally, but the distribution of support across the other parties is changing in important ways.

I’m watching that closely.

— John Queen

SEPTEMBER 29, 2026 | JESSICA POWERS ENTERS THE RACE

Well, we have a new political party in Tosler.

Former Liberal Democratic Prime Minister Jessica Powers announced yesterday that she is founding the Democratici Civici di Tosler — the Civic Democrats of Tosler.

And the party is already appearing in our national polling.

THE LATEST NUMBERS

PLD 31.7% | PL 22.9% | PSD 14.6%

PRC 9.2% | PV 9.2% | SD 7.8%

DCT 1.5% | PS 1.3% | PC 0.7% | PML 0.6% | TP 0.5%

Now, a word of caution about that 1.5%.

This is an exceptionally early measurement, and portions of the polling period preceded the formal party announcement.

It tells us very little about where the Civic Democrats’ support may ultimately settle.

But the political significance of Powers’ decision is considerable.

WHY POWERS MATTERS

Powers served as prime minister during President Michael McGavin’s final term, when Tosler consolidated its policy of nuclear disarmament.

She later became President Liam Ossoff’s National Security Adviser.

But in June, President Ossoff announced the resumption of domestic nuclear-warhead production.

Powers resigned shortly afterward, following reported disagreements over the decision.

Now she is establishing a new centrist political party.

This creates several questions.

Will the Civic Democrats principally attract support from voters who previously favoured the Liberal Democrats?

Could they also appeal to moderate supporters of Labour, the Social Democrats or Conservatives?

And how much of Powers’ personal political standing will transfer to her new organization?

A NEW ELEMENT IN THE CAMPAIGN

The established parties were already experiencing some movement in the polls before yesterday’s announcement.

The Liberal Democrats have declined from 36% at the beginning of September to 31.7%.

Labour has fallen from 26% to 22.9%.

The Social Democrats have climbed from 11% to 14.6%.

Now the Civic Democrats have entered that changing landscape.

What happens next is an open question.

But there’s certainly a new political development to track.

— John Queen

SEPTEMBER 22, 2026 | THE SOCIAL DEMOCRATS ARE MOVING

The Social Democrats are emerging as one of September’s important polling stories.

They now stand at 13.6%, compared with 11% in our opening September poll.

TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD 32.8% | PL 23.8% | PSD 13.6%

PV 9.9% | PRC 9.2% | SD 7.7%

PS 1.4% | PC 0.7% | PML 0.5% | TP 0.4%

The Liberal Democrats still have a nine-point advantage over Labour.

But both parties have lost ground since September 1.

The Social Democrats, meanwhile, have gained support.

And the Greens are now approaching ten percent.

MORE THAN A TWO-PARTY CONTEST

This is becoming considerably more interesting than a conventional competition between the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

And under the new constitutional arrangements, that matters.

One thousand House seats will be allocated through compensatory proportional representation.

National party preference will therefore have a direct role in determining parliamentary composition.

The Social Democrats’ growth is consequential because increased national party-vote support can translate into compensatory representation, depending on the results in individual constituencies.

DON’T FORGET THE LOCAL CONTESTS

We still need to distinguish national support from district-level voting.

That distinction is particularly important for established parties such as the Socialists, whose national support is modest but whose local constituency organizations remain significant.

The same principle applies elsewhere.

A party with substantial national support may encounter difficulties translating that support into district victories.

Another party may perform disproportionately well in specific communities.

With six weeks remaining, the national picture is becoming increasingly diverse.

And we haven’t even begun to see how these parties will interact through ranked-choice transfers.

— John Queen

SEPTEMBER 15, 2026 | A NEW ELECTORAL ERA

What a week in Parliament.

Following the adoption of the September 10 constitutional reforms, we now know that the November election will take place under a transformed electoral system.

The House will expand to 3,000 members, with 2,000 ranked-choice constituencies and 1,000 compensatory seats.

The Senate will expand to 500 members.

And voters will be making choices under a system that creates a clearer distinction between their preferred local representative and their preferred national political party.

THIS WEEK’S POLLING

PLD 33.8% | PL 24.4% | PSD 12.5%

PV 9.8% | PRC 9.2% | SD 7.4%

PS 1.4% | PC 0.6% | PML 0.5% | TP 0.4%

The Liberal Democrats remain ahead, but their lead over Labour has narrowed to 9.4 points.

The Social Democrats are making steady gains, while the Greens are approaching double digits.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES

The electoral reforms are particularly important for smaller parties.

Under the new arrangements, parties reaching 5% of the national House party vote, or winning at least 25 constituencies, qualify for compensatory allocation.

This creates a new strategic question.

How much emphasis should a party place on national support, and how much on individual constituency campaigns?

Both matter.

The Senate changes are also significant.

The new chamber will include 300 state senators and 200 proportional senators.

Transitional arrangements will put 350 Senate seats before voters in November, with the other 150 state senators continuing their existing terms.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR POLLING

Our national party-preference measurements must now be read alongside constituency first preferences, ranked-choice transfers and the compensatory allocation formula.

And we must analyze the Senate separately.

Voters are not necessarily going to make the same choice on every ballot.

This election may produce different patterns of support in the House districts, national party ballot and Senate contests.

We’re entering genuinely new electoral territory.

— John Queen

SEPTEMBER 8, 2026 | PARLIAMENT DEBATES THE RULES

The Liberal Democrats retain a substantial advantage, but the constitutional debate is commanding much of the political attention.

Here is our second weekly polling average.

TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD 35.0% | PL 25.2% | PSD 11.5%

PV 9.5% | PRC 8.7% | SD 7.3%

PS 1.4% | PC 0.6% | PML 0.4% | TP 0.4%

The Liberal Democrat lead over Labour is now 9.8 points.

Both parties have fallen slightly compared with September 1.

Meanwhile, the Social Democrats, Greens and Democratic Socialists have registered modest gains.

None of those changes alone establishes a dramatic transformation.

But there is another development we need to watch.

THE CONSTITUTIONAL DEADLINE

Parliament is working toward a deadline for finalizing the constitutional and electoral framework for November’s general election.

Proposals include a significantly enlarged National Assembly and a new system for translating votes into parliamentary representation.

These negotiations matter enormously.

The way votes are counted and seats are allocated will affect campaign strategy, candidate recruitment and the shape of the next Parliament.

WHY OUR NATIONAL POLLING MATTERS

TNN is asking voters for their national party preference independently of their choice of local candidate.

That provides a standardized measure of support while Parliament considers the proposed changes.

If the reforms are adopted, that national party-preference measure will provide an important basis for comparing voting intentions over the course of the campaign.

But it is not a substitute for measuring constituency support.

One thing is already clear.

This November election is going to be about more than the relative standing of the Liberal Democrats and Labour.

It may also become the first major test of an entirely new electoral framework.

Seven weeks to go.

— John Queen

SEPTEMBER 1, 2026 | WELCOME TO THE ROAD TO NOVEMBER

Welcome to the first edition of my weekly TNN election polling blog.

Over the next nine weeks, I’ll be following the national polls, the constituency contests, the parties and the political developments shaping the November 3 general election.

We’ll look beyond the headlines and ask what the numbers actually tell us about Tosler’s changing electorate.

And we begin with a clear national polling picture.

OUR OPENING TNN POLL OF POLLS

PLD — Liberal Democrats: 36.0%
PL — Labour: 26.0%
PSD — Social Democrats: 11.0%
PV — Greens: 9.0%
PRC — Conservative Republicans: 8.8%
SD — Democratic Socialists: 6.6%
PS — Socialists: 1.3%
PC — Communists: 0.5%
PML — Marxist-Leninists: 0.4%
TP — Tosler First: 0.4%

The Liberal Democrats begin September with a ten-point national advantage over Labour.

The Social Democrats occupy third place at 11%, followed by the Greens and Conservative Republicans.

Abigail Perez’s Democratic Socialists stand at 6.6%, reflecting their developing presence in Tosler’s national political landscape.

WHAT I’LL BE WATCHING

There are several questions I want to follow throughout this campaign.

Can Labour narrow the Liberal Democrats’ advantage?

Will the Social Democrats regain support?

Can the Greens and Democratic Socialists strengthen their national positions?

How will smaller parties with established local constituencies perform?

And perhaps most importantly, how will the proposed electoral reforms affect the relationship between national voting intentions and parliamentary representation?

AN ENORMOUS ELECTORATE

One more thing deserves attention from the very beginning.

Tosler’s electorate is enormous, rapidly growing and unusually diverse.

Large-scale migration, refugee resettlement, expedited naturalization and voting rights beginning at age sixteen create a particularly complex environment for electoral research.

TNN will be drawing on independent polling organizations, expanded regional surveys, demographic studies and constituency-level measurements throughout this campaign.

We will also be watching undecided voters, turnout expectations and the extent to which national party preferences differ from local candidate choices.

Polling tells us what people are thinking at a particular moment.

It does not tell us what they must do on election day.

That’s why we’re going to keep looking at the numbers, week after week, right through November 3.

There are nine weeks to go.

A great deal can happen in nine weeks.

Welcome to The Road to November.

— John Queen

The TNN Poll of Polls aggregates national voting-intention surveys conducted by independent polling organizations, including the Lexington Institute, the University of Romia Institute for Electoral Studies, TosData, the Milani Research Institute and TNN Polling & Research.

National party-vote figures represent the shares of decided and leaning likely voters. Undecided voters are reported separately and are not included in the normalized party percentages.

Following the September constitutional reforms, the series measures national House party-ballot preferences. Earlier entries use comparable national party-preference questions.

The polling programme incorporates demographic weighting, regional representation, extensive multilingual fieldwork and sampling across all 150 states.

Combined regular weekly research reaches approximately 100 million completed interviews. The final election-eve programme incorporates 250 million completed interviews.

These large samples substantially reduce random sampling error, but cannot eliminate nonresponse bias, late opinion changes, turnout uncertainty or differences between national party preferences and individual constituency voting.

TNN also conducts separate research into ranked-choice district ballots, preference transfers and Senate voting intentions.

The estimated eligible electorate is 30.6 billion. Final electorate and turnout figures will be determined following the reconciliation of election-day registrations and certified voting returns.