LazarusBoard

"What can I do today for you, Leo?" Großadmiral Steffen Wiese, head of all Imperial intelligence agencies, approached Imperator Konsul Leo I. in his office. The 57-year old man, whose formerly brown hair had started to turn grey, was not a rare guest in the Imperial Palace, although Leo I. famously disliked espionage, secrecy and covert missions and preferred open words, direct diplomacy or even open war to it.

Leo I. focused his blue-green eyes on his invitee. The youthful emperor, aged 35 and thus a lot younger than Wiese, frowned. The little scar on his forehead, where he had hit his head on a table as a toddler, became more prominent. He stood up as a sign of respect to the older man and pointed at a sofa in one corner of his enormous office. "Let us sit down and get comfortable, Steffen, this may take a while. Want anything to drink?" - "Just water, bitte". The two men sat down on the sofa. "Zwei Gläser Wasser, bitte" Leo seemed to adress nobody in particular, but suddenly a small door in the table in front of him opened and revealed a tray with two glasses of water. "Nice, when did you get that?" Wiese wondered. "Oh, just last week. The janitor finally talked me into upgrading my office with more gadgetry. Said his own household was already fancier equipped than my office. I also had the huge screen replaced by one of those new HoloTVs, you know".

Wiese looked at the wall behind the sofa, where a huge screen used to hang, which was often used in strategy meetings. "Indeed, I see".

"Now, enough of the small talk" Leo straigthened himself. "As you know better than I, the Cossack Peoples Civil War has been raging for a while now. We kept well clear of that because, well, they were our enemies, and we didn't stand to gain anything by interfering, while they would only weaken themselves." Wiese nodded.

Leo continued "Increasingly though, the inaction of the international community - including us - appears problematic. Waves of refugees are coming into our country and many others. With missiles flying left and right, trade in the area has taken a hit, which is already harming imperial exports and imports. The Civil war could spill over into other countries. What if neighbouring New vedan, which is not exactly the most politically stable of countries, is next? The pressure on their domestic politics exerted by the millions of displaced people must be enormous. What if some mad "Генерал" were to send WMDs to us - or anywhere else - to score a domestic point?" The emperor paused briefly, clearly worried.

Wiese took a deep breath. For a second, there was a look of reproach in his eyes, before he smiled. "Leo, Leo. I did warn you of all these possibilities, and more, in an intelligence briefing I sent you weeks - no months! - ago."

"I know, I know". The Imperator Konsul looked deliberately innocent now. "I just had hoped that this whole affair would solve itself and either side would sweep the other aside within weeks. Well, that didn't happen and now it's all gotten much worse." Leo sighed. "Please tell me you have some options for me on what to do apart from invading the place. I think the Imperial Armed Forces could probably wipe out both sides in the Civil War in weeks, now that they're exhausted and low on supplies, but that would very cleary make us the aggressors, result in lots of casualties, make us a pariah in the eyes of the international community and we'd have no way to hold onto the territory and establish a peaceful post-war order."

"Exactly". Wiese now had a smug look on his face. "As I also wrote in the briefing dossier" - he inserted a short rhetoric pause - "our intelligence resources regarding the FRCP are now much better than during the South Sea War, when we had practically none. Nowadays, we have several hundred Cossacks who voluntarily stayed in our country after being taken Prisoner of War, as they realised this was actually a much nicer place to live than their hellhole of a motherland. Most of them have shown to be hard workers, eager to learn our language and are on track to recieve citizenship after the minimum two years of integration. The Spionageabwehr already approached several of them, whom we deemed to be the most trustworthy, about working for us in exchange for a fast-track to citizenship and generous additional pay. With some success. If need be, we now have up to twenty people who look Cossack and talk Cossack just like the natives and know the place inside out.

So these this is the potential manpower for our "boots on the ground". Now let's look at our strategic options. Does this still work with your new HoloTV?" Wiese pressed a few buttons on a small handheld device. Moments later, a holographic picture appeared above the table between them. It showed a document the Großadmiral had prepared to highlight the possible means of interventions into the war.

• Intelligence sharing / supplying locals with high-resolution satellite pictures and aerial photographs from R44 aerospace fighters

• Delivery of supplies / ammunition / weapons to either side of the combatants

• Sabotage

• Surgical air- or space-strikes against critical targets

• Faciliating peace talks between the combatants

"Let's not forget about the last one too. We have assessed the likelihood of successful peace talks moderated by us at a single-digit percentage, but other more neutral countries might be more successful at that. Our best bet might be to strengthen one side or weaken the other side enough to force them into negotiations, ideally without them ever having a clue that we influenced their fate at all."

Wiese paused to raise his glass and drink some water. Leo did the same, then said "Alright, I'll think about it. But which side should we support anyways?"

"That, my friend, might be the hardest decision to make. None is without flaws, both comitted war crimes, and none has shown any signs of sympathy for us yet..."