Post

Roborian wrote:

[. . .]and the inconsistency in state polls still shows a clear trend towards a Biden advantage.

Not when you weigh the sampling data honestly; and even then, that generalization is a few weeks out of date.

Roborian wrote:

Turnout in 2018 was almost unimaginably high (really something that I think is worthy of more discussion, it went from 36 to over 50, compared to 40 in 2010), and that was for Trump as a spectre rather than the man himself[. . .]

As I've said before, it's illogical to think that Trump's presidency was worse than people expected, and after four years, I think the anecdotes of people who voted for him the first time and now won't are overstated, just like they were with Obama. Him being an unknown quantity was a disadvantage, one that has now been replaced by the incumbent advantage.

Roborian wrote:

[. . .]I think it's self-delusion to think that people will not be pouring to the polls to vote against him.

And I think it's self-delusion to think that people won't be pouring out to vote for him. Everything Trump has predicted about the left, from the police and law and order, to wokeness in sports and corporate politics, to foreign policy, has proven true. People who are angry about the lockdowns and riots are not going to vote for Biden. Trump is their only outlet. As people begin to realize who exactly Biden is (or rather, who he isn't), you're going to see those numbers for Biden fake. Very few if any contenders maintain their spring/summer advantage; the race always tightens up the closer you get to the election.

Roborian wrote:

Even if one wanted to take things to an incredible extreme, and say that every single Democratic black voter stays home, the turnout boost among other races alone would still see the Democratic turnout in 2018 midterms swamp any other year in recent history.

This is statistically false. Trump is already outperforming his own record high numbers in 2016 with blacks and latinos.

Roborian wrote:

I expect that the gap will start to close, but Trump has been the single most consistently unpopular President in modern American history[. . .]

According to polls which are controlled by his enemies and oversample Democrats.

Roborian wrote:

[. . .]and has had the economic strength that was really his main hope for survival utterly destroyed by COVID.

Yet according to those same polls you love so much, a majority of Americans do not blame him for the downturn. It's true it's a big advantage he lost, but he's gained others in its place.

Roborian wrote:

[. . .]that the Trump administration has by all indications failed to win the support of near enough of the American people relative to those who despise it to have anything more than an outside chance.

This is so incredibly off-based you don't even know. Even though you acknowledge the media is biased, you've let it poison your perspective, and I think you will be surprised how wrong you were. Unfortunately with someone who has their head this far buried in the sand, I can't really argue facts, I'll just have to wait for you to be proven wrong. But you sound like Bill Kristol or George Will 2.0. One of these sanctimonious "true conservatives" who are so out-of-touch with real people that they cannot even begin to understand Trump's appeal. I am more confidant today in my predictions than ever. The worst person Biden could have put on his ticket was Harris.