Tofino Times | 2-10-2024

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POLITICAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDANT: Edward Renene (EddyReneneOfficial)
FOUGERE - According to pre-general election polling, President Sabine Armitage trails a potential Arthur Davidson campaign by nearly 23 points, the widest margin behind for an incumbent president running for reelection in nearly 20 years. Whereas President Atticus Moreau trailed in polling behind both then-Congresswoman Armitage and Senator Leanne Dale, he ultimately declined to run for a second term. Experts known for their predictions and insight into election cycles have stated that this margin is likely to change, possibly even close as the election comes nearer and the president continues to address domestic and foreign challenges, but the bottom line is that the president faces an electability problem should Davidson secure the GLP's nomination, as it appears he is likely to do.

On Thursday, Davidson soared to a sweeping victory in Cayenne province's GLP primary election, the first in the party's newly established format for choosing a candidate. He took home more than 76% of the popular vote in the province, to Gunn's 19% and other candidates sharing the remaining percentages. Whereas in previous years any number of candidates could run, sharing a strategy with the BCP's options for running presidential candidates, the realignment of the GLP's strategy for 2024 was established in mid-2023, when the party announced they would only back a single candidate chosen through a series of primary elections in each province ahead of the general election in September. Davidson, who entered the race in October 2023 to oppose three-time presidential hopeful senator Euan Gunn, has skyrocketed to popularity within the party after successful debate performances and several public showcases boosting his profile, including a dramatic rescue of his neighbors from a housefire in early January.

If Davidson's successes continue in such fashion for upcoming primaries, the next of which is held in his home province of the Holish Islands, Gunn may opt to drop out of the race for the betterment of the party. The presidency has been dominated by conservative party figures since 2004 with the election of Cassious Castovia. Though Atticus Moreau was a member of the now defunct Bloc Mayotte, the party and he both adhered to many conservative-leaning policies and is thus considered a moderate conservative. If the GLP hopes to upend the two-decade administrations of conservative politics, they will have to bind behind a single candidate sooner than later. Gunn, for his part, has not indicated that he will drop out of the race, and has even floated the idea of running as a independent or joining the Progressive Alliance Party, a move which would likely be met with skepticism as the PAP leader Sylvia Wood is once again expected to make her bid.

Armitage faces a unique struggle for an incumbent president; popular economic policies combatted with several notable controversies. She has presided over a robust economy, a factor for which her predecessors suffered. Moreau oversaw stagnation, which culminated after President Foley Saksi failed to bring about tax reform. His predecessor Anya Bishop, as widely unpopular as she was in other regards, failed to bring the country out of a looming recession. And prior to that, President Castovia Jr also saw stagnation. Armitage has seen the opposite. Jobs reports have skyrocketed in recent months, presenting the first signs of notable growth in nearly 5 years. Tax reductions passed with bipartisan support helped stabilize incomes across the board, with inflation decreasing from where it was two years ago. And while other nations are experiencing turmoil in their banking rates, Zamastan has kept rather steady, with dramatic stock days showing high standings.

However, Bishop has been labeled as a warmonger by critics. Not a month into her presidency and Zamastan and WEDA were engulfed in the Terehan conflict, which ultimately led to 890 Zamastanian servicemember deaths and thousands of wounded. As that war drew to a close, while labeled a success in its help to transition the south Adulan nation into a democracy, WEDA was dragged once again to the brink of conflict when two Yuaneze naval vessels were sunk in Titania Bay and later found themselves face to face with Yuan's full naval might in the Brau Sea crisis. Then, the influx of weapons to Haduastan was authorized at the height of an ACWAC military incursion. To add to the chaos of global affairs, Zamastanian pilots are now bombing the Qahazar peninsula in Zalluabed.

Whether or not these actions were justified, as good points can be made for both arguments, the popular opinion of these interventions has not helped Ms Armitage. Where 68% of the public supported strikes against Terehan in the wake of the Beresa port bombing, only 14% supported a ground invasion. As occupation in Terehan settled in, the war grew even more unpopular and nationwide protests rose up against Armitage's insistence that everything was going according to plan. Where 70% of the public supported Zamastan supplying Haduastan with weapons to defend itself, only 20% supported WEDA's naval intervention, which was pushed through by Armitage's insistence. And while 60% of the public supported air strikes against the PRQ for their drone attacks on Emmiria and Albarine, an overwhelming 87% have stated that the ongoing campaign has gone on for too long.

Armitage has also faced mounting criticism for her immigration policies. Her administration's passage of the Maritime Movement Prevention Act, which restricts the acceptance cap for migrants crossing the Ossinia Sea and the Cantalle Ocean, has been widely criticized. Armitage's administration has also cut the rate of central Euronian immigration by 85%, and has lowered the annual acceptance cap by nearly 2.4 million immigrants, by far the most of any administration in modern history. Armitage's often brash and fearmongering comments regarding immigration, specifically from poorer regions, has introduced cries of racism and xenophobia from many.

And no wrap-up of Armitage's electability can be concluded without bringing into the picture her many scandals, the most notable of which nearly cost her the presidency. Her dealings with major corporations, namely SanCorp, have been proven to have supported her political rise and namely her election to office. Many of her former-staff's connections to the Barismont scandal crippled her administration in the early days of 2023 as she grappled with impeachment, for which she only narrowly survived as much of her own party even turned on her. Armitage now sits with a favorability rating of only 21%, the third lowest in the past decade, which has unfortunately come to be a standard for the past wave of Zamastanian presidents. She is, of course, only third to Atticus Moreau who at his worst held 19% favorability, and to Anya Bishop, who was removed from office with a public favorability of 8%. She may refuse to say it at her campaign rallies, and though the support of former-President Sakzi may turn heads, Armitage needs a miracle to re-captivate her base.

Enter, Senator Davidson. This past week, he spent his days campaigning throughout Cayenne and making notable stops across the Horseshoe Coast, including in Anadora where he joined hands with demonstrators calling for police reform nearly a year after the death of Lio Hanerbell. Davidson is farther to the left than many of his preceding candidates, but by all accounts that is a trend which is becoming more well received in Zamastan. Even conservative legislative majorities have been forced to take more moderate approaches to issues like gun rights and abortion, as the public's stance on key cultural issues have shifted. Davidson markets himself as a man of the people, often joining union lines and making his step-by-step policies dumbed down for the average person to understand without needing to go to his website for deep dives and long detailed listings (of which he has many).

Davidson, the senator from the Holish Islands, has made his campaign all about what he wants to do and how he plans to do it, all the while managing to jump around directly criticizing Armitage. He will go after her policies, but will never name her. He will call out her rhetoric, but never by name. He is making his campaign an alternate. Yes, it may be under the banner of the GLP, and yes he may be fighting to be a lead candidate. But, he is doing it in a style unseen in Zamastan in decades. One political commentator said "it's like a rally for the great Marvin Gaviria. He makes himself liked by the way he relates. He is kind hearted in his demonstrations of passion, even when it's clear he's angry about something in the country, he will never demean the character of his opponents."

His ideological opponents, that is. Davidson began the campaign going hard after Gunn, calling him "washed up", and "over-worked." Gunn, for his part, has tried to hit back. This week, he called Davidson "a narcissist too proud of his own voice," saying that the flashy and smiley persona on display for the campaigns is not mirrored behind the scenes. Gunn described Davidson in the senate's behind door meetings as "an interrupting product of nepotism, a sexist who shuts down the voices of his female compatriots, and rots away the personalities of those who even slightly irk him or his goal."

In an interview, Davidson laughed off Gunn's remarks, calling them "clearly misled and misinterpreted," and then pointed to the dozens of GLP congressmembers who have since endorsed his candidacy.

Davidson is almost certainly going to sweep to a victory in his home province's upcoming primary election, and is leading substantially in early polling for other primaries. Whether he can maintain it for the party nomination is becoming a matter of time. Whether he can maintain it for the presidential election is becoming a matter of consistency, maneuvering, and ultimately it appears - luck.

SPORTS CORRESPONDANT: Tad Gerrahty (TadGerrahtyOfficial)
PORTE-LYON - Still reeling from a shock loss to Zoygaria two weeks ago, the Zamastanian national team was geared for another match-up with hopeful spirits, as in historic matches Zamastan has almost always come out on top of the underdog Allieuan team. However, once again, hopes were dashed as the youthful northwest Euronian team outpaced the star-studded veteran Zamastanians at every turn, both in possession of the ball and defense against it, with their forwards plowing through the backfield and making mockery of goalkeeper Ellis Ball, who was carded and removed from the game following the third slip for cursing at the referees. Ahead of the World Cup qualifying matches in April, the Zamastanian team has struggled to find its footing, and continues to seek avenues to perform to the standard the team has been known for. Though, with these two supposed "easy" games denying the favor of the Zamastanians, many are wondering if the era of prominence in international soccer may be coming to an end.

It did not take long after the starting whistle for the game to take a stunning turn. Zamastan's defense was torn wide open by masterful handling of the ball between Allieu's midfield and up to their forwards, where a 4th minute assist by Paul Boutroux to striker Josué Dupont sunk past the hands of Ellis Ball, who dove past the net in well below the drive. The audience in Porte-Lyon went wild, as it marked the first leading goal by Allieu against a Zamastanian team in nearly two decades. Zamastan and Allieu have a regional rivalry, as the Zamastan Soccer League and the Kasuum Football League (which comprises of Allieu, Noravia, Sontre, and Baytonian clubs) are regarded as two of West Euronia's top performing leagues (the other being Caspiaa's First League).

In the 16th minute, after several Zamastanian strikers including Isaiah Ross fired on the Allieuan goal and failed to make it past keeper Lucas Carbonneau, the ball made its way up to the Allieuan front once more, where Wilfried Ballouhey handled it around defender Seth Canless, managed to trip up Keaton Dalton, and fired a curve through the goalkeeper and bringing the game up to a 2-0 lead. Off to the side, Zamastan's substitutes were stunned and sitting back, as the coaching team were visibly raged and called out the defense to substitute even captain Roch Asselin.

As halftime rolled around, and Allieuan attempts on the goal were thwarted, the Whitecaps wandered out of the locker rooms and repositioned, ready for a refreshed end to the game. With energy, they poured into the Allieuan defense, culminating in several shots on the goal and penalties, and while none scored, it showed that pressure had increased, and it could only be a matter of time. However, hopes shattered once again in the 76th minute, as Ballouhey once again nailed a curving shot to the right hook around Ellis, placing well into the corner and securing a 3-0 lead with only minutes left in the game. At that point, the famed Zamastanian goalkeeper screamed a profanity at Ballouhey, for which he was thrown a yellow card. Ball then cursed at the referee, who called another card and ejected Ball from the match, his first ever ejection in 7 years on the national team.

The Zamastanians never did recover, and Allieu secured a win for both their long history of underdog successes and an optimistic look forward to their World Cup hopes. Meanwhile, Zamastan is left to restructure, pondering the future as the ultimate tournament looms. Several of the team's star players, including Isaiah Ross and Nicholas Rosa, have expressed their careers may be approaching conclusions in the coming years, and that prospect has left coaching staff worried that morale has drained after back-to-back surprise losses.

"It's not like a loss to Shoassau, or a loss to Elbresia, or any number of well-known battlers," said defensive coordinator Lionel Elman after the match, "it's back-to-back surprise losses from teams we simply haven't lost to in the past. At least to the degree to which we have. And that hurts, you know? Obviously the Zoygarians and the Allieuans have played extremely well, and our boys give it their all, but something has slipped. And we are running out of time to figure out what it is, and we need to figure it out fast."

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