RP Mod Ruling on SIC Information, Leaks and Espionage Version 2.2: 17 January 2020

Rule 1: SIC information must be sent by telegram to a neutral RP mod. The World Factbook Entry (the main regional landing page for CISB) lists current RP mods; there is one mod for each RP time scenario. Modified 10 January 2020 Naval orders must specify the route especially if there is an intention to use or to avoid the Suez Canal, the Panama Canal, the Strait of Malacca or the Bosphorus Straits. added 13 April 2019; bolded text added 10 January 2020

Rule 2: An RP Mod must maintain the secrecy of SIC information; they must not use it or disclose it to any other player except in a circumstance allowed by one of the other rules.

Rule 3: When an RP Mod has SIC information from two or more nations, and when one set of SIC information necessarily discovers the other, and vice versa, then the RP Mod may disclose the information. For example: Caraisa sends a fleet of ships SIC to patrol the Straits of Gibraltar. Mathorn sends a fleet SIC to patrol the Straits of Gibraltar. By necessity, these two fleets are going to see each other AND they are going to be seen by normal coastal patrols of the countries on either sides of the Straits of Gibraltar (i.e., Alsesia and Michellae). In this circumstance, the RP Mod may directly disclose the information on the RMB (reflecting the two fleets seeing one another), or the RP Mod may disclose the information to Alsesia and/or Michellae, reflecting detection of those fleets by fisherman, lighthouse keepers, coastal patrols, whatever. Also, any ships passing through the Suez Canal or the Bosphorus will automatically be detected by the nation controlling that waterway (Al qahirah for the Suez Canal and Bardayin for the Bosphorus) unless they are submarines traveling submerged. Anybody who has ever been to Istanbul will understand why - it's impossible to travel through the Bosphorus without being seen. The same rule will apply to transit through the Panama Canal (Alsesia) when it is eventually built and the Strait of Malacca.bolded text added 13 April 2019 and modified 10 January 2020

Rule 4: There is always a small chance that SIC information may randomly leak. Not because the RP Mod is careless. But because sometimes people handle information carelessly (they leave their briefcase on a train; they talk in public) or random people see stuff that should be hidden, but isn't hidden well enough. (IRL example: some years ago a top-secret Silkworm missile base in a certain Middle Eastern country was discovered by an Australian nurse hiking on the weekend who saw some strange looking installations, took photos from a distance and showed them to her boyfriend who happened to recognize what they were; he passed them on to the American Embassy in that country and the secret was out). I reckon there will be a 2% chance that SIC information will randomly leak. I will use a randomizer to simulate a 2/100 chance, a roll of 1 or 2 will mean the information leaks on the RMB. Any other roll will mean the information remains secret. This will be a one-time roll, taken at any time after the Mod receives the SIC information (not necessarily the first day, but only once). As an exception to this, SIC information that by its nature cannot easily be kept secret will have a 15/100 chance of leaking (for example, any SIC information about "massive troop movements" or "total mobilization" or basically anything that involves notifying the general population that reserves are being called up, or that a fleet comprising hundreds of ships is on the move) has a 15/100 chance of leaking per day. Bolded text added 13 April 2019

Rule 5: Spies can discover SIC information. If Country A deploys a team of spies in Country B, there should be a Y% chance that the Country A spy discovers SIC information sent by Country B to the RP Mod. But you can't just say something like "I have a spy in Russia therefore I know everything that happens in Russia" because you can't possibly blanket an entire country with spies and spies are not 100% efficient. But the more spy teams you deploy, the more chance you will uncover SIC data (if there is any). So I will use a baseline of 15/100 chance for a spy team to discover SIC information. There will be an additional 2/100 chance for each additional spy team deployed. This dice roll (actually randomizer) will be conducted once every day IRL that the spy team is deployed. Spy teams will remain in place until captured or withdrawn. Following an order to withdraw spies, there is one more randomizer roll per team the next IRL day reflecting the risk that spies are captured while trying to exit the country. bolded text added 13 April 2019

If the randomizer result is that the spy team succeeded in discovering SIC information, the RP Mod will disclose the SIC information to the country that sent the spy. But the Mod will not announce this publicly on the RMB, or tell the country who got hacked.

HOWEVER

Rule 6: Spies can be caught. There is a Z% chance that a spy will be caught by the counter-intelligence agencies of the country in which you are spying. Z also increases the more spies you deploy. Counter-intelligence usually has the advantage over foreign spies, so I'm going to say the baseline is 20/100 chance for a spy team to get caught. And that increases by 3/100 for every additional spy team the enemy has deployed in your country. This dice roll will be conducted once every day IRL that the spy team is deployed.

The detection dice roll is independent of the espionage dice roll.

If the randomizer result is that spy teams are caught, the RP Mod will disclose this to the country that discovered the spy. That country then has a choice, which it must tell the RP Mod: (a) the discovering country will publicly disclose the capture on the RMB or (b) the country will give disinformation (fake SIC information, clearly labeling it as such) to the RP Mod with instructions to pass it on to the spying country. Therefore, the spying country might believe its mission succeeded, whereas it is really getting disinformation because counterintelligence "made" the spies and fed them fake news. Or, it might be a combination of both, because Rules 5 and 6 work independently of one another.

Rule 7: Spies can be tricky

Spies can assume a false identity and carry false passports or other ID documents that would tend to indicate they came from a different country than the one who actually sent them. A country deploying a spy team can give an SIC order to the RP Mod that its team is assuming a false identity (the SIC order must specify the fake nationality at the time the spy team is deployed). So, Country A sends a spy team to Country B and there is a SIC order from A that the spies are carrying passports from Country C, then if the spies is discovered, the RP Mod will notify the discovering country that the spies appear to be from Country C (the fake origin) rather than Country A, the real origin. However, there are some twists to serve as a disincentive to doing this all the time:

(a) Giving a SIC false identity increases by 1.5 times the chance that a spy will be discovered (i.e. a 20/100 chance becomes a 30/100 chance).

(b) if a spy is discovered, there is always one extra randomizer for the chance that the counterintelligence agencies recognize that the spies have assumed a false identity, and are able to discern the true identity of the spies. 20/100 chance.

(c) Country C (the fake origin country) might be irked at getting its name and reputation damaged by Country A's SIC espionage orders.

Rule 8: Spies can conduct active operations.

Spies can attempt to carry out assassinations or sabotage. A spy team's chance of succeeding at an active operations mission is the same as its chance of success at discovering SIC information (i.e., a baseline of 15/100 plus an additional 2/100 for each additional spy team deployed). Any given spy team can conduct either espionage (information gathering) or active operations once per IRL day, but not both. In other words, it can do one or the other each day, but not both on the same day.

All of Rule 8 was added with effect from 17 April 2019

Rule 9: Active military operations

Military units can conduct SIC operations (i.e., bombing raids, paratrooper drops, missile launches, coastal bombardment by naval units) but only against a nation that is already actively at war. SIC military attacks against neutral or peaceful nations are not allowed In these circumstances, combat will be resolved by the RP mod just as if the military unit were a spy conducting active operations. SIC orders of this type should specify the exact number of units (how many missiles launched, how many bombs to be dropped, etc) and their targets. Each unit will be treated as one spy (i.e., a baseline of 15/100 chance of success plus 2/100 for each additional unit deployed against a specific target up to a maximum of 55/100 chance per unit per target). Note that this rule applies only to military units conducting SIC "surprise attacks." Normally speaking, combat will be resolved by agreement of the two combatants. This rule is an exception that applies only when the attacker has given SIC orders to the RP mod for the purpose of a surprise attack or a stealth mission (where the identity of the attacker is supposed to remain secret). Rule 10 was added on 10 January 2020

Where a nation orders SIC bombing raids, missile launches or coastal bombardment by naval units, there must be an additional randomizer roll for each successful attack to determine the level of damage. This will be on a scale of 1-100. Damage levels for multiple successful strikes on the same target in the same day will be added together, so that if two missiles hit and one causes damage 17 and the other causes damage 12, the total damage will be 29. Damage under 10 indicates that the target remains operational but there are deaths and injuries or other losses to be described in RP by the player suffering the attack. Any damage over 87 indicates that the target was functionally destroyed. Damage from 11 through 86 represents increasingly high levels of damage but the exact outcome will be resolved by the two players involved, both acting reasonably. If they cannot agree, both will submit their proposals to the RP mod for decision; this decision will be final. Bold italicized text was added on 17 January 2020.

Rule 10: Order of Mod Operations

The RP Mod will run the randomizers in the following sequence:

(1) Did any SIC information accidentally/randomly leak?
(2) Were any spies or SIC military units detected/captured?
(3) For any captured spies bearing false papers, were their covers blown?
(4) For any non-captured spies, did they discover SIC information?
(5) For any non-captured spies, or for SIC military units, were active operations successful?

Randomly leaked information is assumed to be publicly known and will normally be reported by the RP Mod on the RMB (though the Mod may provide the leaked info to a different country if this helps enhance dramatic narrative.

Detected/captured spy teams will be immediately reported to the country being spied upon. Detected SIC military units will be announced publicly on the RMB. If a spy's cover is blown, this will also be immediately reported to the country being spied upon.

There will be a lag time of up to 24 hours (IRL) in relaying SIC information discovered by active spies. This is to make it harder to guess whether the information is real SIC information discovered by the spies or fake SIC information ("disinformation") provided by the counterintelligence agencies of the country being spied upon.

All of Rule 9 was added on 13 April 2019. The rule was modified, and the rule number was changed to Rule 10 on 10 January 2020

Summary

So to summarize Rules 5, 6 and 7.

Let's say Country A informs the RP Mod that it deployed 5 spy teams into Country B. That means, for every IRL day those teams are there, there is a 23/100 chance that those spies will discover SIC information that Country B has sent to the Mod. (Obviously if there is no SIC information sent, there is nothing for the spies to discover). So dice rolls 1-23 mean the spies succeeded, any other roll means they didn't learn anything. I will use one randomizer roll per spy team (i.e., for 5 spy teams I will generate 5 separate numbers).

At the same time there is a 32/100 chance each IRL day that one of A's spy teams will be detected by Country B's counterintelligence service. (This is independent of whether there is actually SIC information at play - the spies might be chasing rainbows and unicorns and still get caught). So dice rolls 1-32 mean the spies get caught; any other roll means they are safe. Again, one randomizer per spy team.

If A's spy teams are carrying passports from C, there is one more dice roll per captured team per day to determine whether their covers are blown and their true national origins are revealed. 1-20 means the covers are blown, any other roll means their fake identities are believed. One randomizer per spy team.

FYI this is the randomizer I will use.